Iran Bets on US Midterm Elections to Gain Leverage Against Trump

An Israeli researcher believes Iran is anticipating a shift in U.S. policy following the upcoming midterm elections, potentially weakening President Donald Trump's position. Dani Sitrinovich, an Iran program researcher at the INSS institute, stated that the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps is unlikely to back down from its demands on the United States. He noted that the U.S. naval blockade and new sanctions are impacting Iran's economy, which was already struggling, evidenced by protests in January. However, Sitrinovich explained that despite economic hardship, Iran's current situation is not leading it to reconsider its policies.

Sitrinovich observed a significant increase in Iranian attacks in the Strait of Hormuz, suggesting escalation rather than submission. He expressed doubt that this would lead to Iranian capitulation or concessions at the negotiating table. Instead, he believes Iran is banking on the U.S. midterm elections on November 3rd, expecting Trump to lose control of the House and Senate, thereby strengthening Iran's hand.

In contrast, Sitrinovich noted that the U.S. anticipates either an economic collapse in Iran or Iran's return to negotiations. He acknowledged that some Iranian elements fear a renewed, intense U.S. campaign, while others believe the opposite will occur. Currently, the situation is at an impasse, which Sitrinovich warned could lead to further escalation, particularly in the Strait of Hormuz.