Middle East Reshaped Three Years After Oct. 7, Iran Weakened Amid Shifting Alliances

Three years after the October 7th attacks, the Middle East is undergoing a significant transformation. While a new regional order has yet to emerge, the old one has been dismantled, and Iran has lost substantial strategic depth built over years. Hezbollah has been weakened, diminishing its capacity to act as an invasion and deterrence force. Hamas has shifted from a territorial military power to a model focused on survival, insurgency, and guerrilla warfare. The fall of Assad has removed Syria from the Iranian axis, while a new leadership in Lebanon is attempting to restore the country's central role. The regional landscape around Iran is also evolving, with Saudi Arabia and the UAE pursuing distinct strategies, Turkey emerging as a more significant regional power, and Gulf states recognizing their vulnerability to regional conflicts affecting their infrastructure and energy routes. Iran, though potentially the biggest loser, remains a threat, demonstrating its continued ability to harm Arab nations, target infrastructure and energy pathways, and militarize the Strait of Hormuz. A key change is the weakening of Iran's proxy model, forcing Tehran to engage more directly. Hezbollah is also adapting, moving towards a guerrilla capability after building a military force designed for invasion. Hamas is similarly transitioning from a territorial army to a survival-focused insurgency. Syria's shift away from the Iranian axis is dramatic, with its new leadership re-evaluating its position among regional powers. Lebanon is also experiencing fragile change, with efforts to regain its former standing and potentially shift focus from Hezbollah's agenda to the Lebanese state's interests. Turkey is deepening its influence in Syria, strengthening ties with Gulf nations, and positioning itself as a key player in shaping the post-instability order. Gulf states are reassessing their security, moving towards strategic autonomy and firmer alliances, acknowledging the difficulty of remaining neutral in regional conflicts. The Arab world is becoming less unified, with Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Qatar, and Egypt pursuing divergent interests and strategies. This evolving system sees more regional actors attempting to shape reality, rather than a US-dominated order. The Palestinian issue, seemingly sidelined before October 7th, has re-emerged as central to regional discussions due to the war's impact. The past three years have not determined a victor but have highlighted the changing rules of the game, with the focus shifting to who will shape the post-conflict order.