Demographics Could Decide Next Election, Experts Say
Translated & summarized from Haaretz by baba
First-time voters in Israel's upcoming election account for about 12 Knesset seats, with most leaning rightward due to religious or traditional backgrounds, according to Tamar Hermann of the Israel Democracy Institute. This demographic shift may pose a challenge for center-left candidates. Hermann also highlighted the difficulties in accurately predicting election results based on polls, citing challenges in assessing public opinion and voter turnout.
The story in 5 lines · by baba
- First-time voters in Israel's upcoming election represent about 12 Knesset seats.
- Most young first-time voters are religious, Haredi, or traditional, or secular leaning right.
- This demographic trend could be the last chance for a center-left candidate to win.
- Accurately assessing public opinion and predicting voter turnout are key challenges in political polling.
- Tamar Hermann is the Academic Director of the Viterbi Center and a senior fellow at the Israel Democracy Institute.
First-time voters in the upcoming Israeli election represent approximately 12 Knesset seats, according to analysis by Tamar Hermann, Academic Director of the Viterbi Center for Public Opinion and Policy Research and a senior fellow at the Israel Democracy Institute. Hermann stated that the majority of these young voters are religious, Haredi, or traditional, and even the secular among them lean towards the right. This demographic trend raises questions about whether this election presents a final opportunity for a center-left candidate to win.
Hermann also addressed challenges in political polling, noting that accurately assessing public opinion and predicting voter turnout are crucial. She explained that discrepancies between poll results and election outcomes often stem from these two factors, rather than inaccuracies in the polls themselves.
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