Demographics Could Decide Next Election, Potentially Favoring Right
Translated & summarized from TheMarker by baba
First-time voters in Israel's upcoming election, numbering around 12 Knesset seats, are predominantly religious or lean right, according to analyst Tamar Hermann. This demographic trend may present a final chance for a center-left candidate to win. Hermann also noted the inherent difficulties in accurately predicting election results due to challenges in assessing public opinion and voter turnout.
The story in 5 lines · by baba
- First-time Israeli voters, representing 12 Knesset seats, are largely religious or right-leaning.
- Analyst Tamar Hermann suggests this election could be a last chance for a center-left candidate.
- Young secular voters also tend to lean towards the right, according to Hermann.
- Accurate political polling faces challenges in assessing public opinion and predicting turnout.
- Discrepancies between polls and election results are attributed to these polling challenges.
First-time voters in the upcoming Israeli election represent approximately 12 Knesset seats, according to analysis by Tamar Hermann, Academic Director of the Viterbi Center for Public Opinion and Policy Research and a senior fellow at the Israel Democracy Institute. Hermann states that the majority of these young voters are religious, Haredi, or traditional, and even secular young people tend to lean right. This demographic trend raises the question of whether this election presents a final opportunity for a center-left candidate to win.
Hermann also addressed the challenges of political polling, noting that accurately assessing public opinion and predicting voter turnout are both difficult tasks. She explained that discrepancies between poll results and actual election outcomes often occur because of these challenges, but that the polls themselves are generally sound.
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