Netanyahu's Gamble on Trump Risks Israel's Security, Unlike Western Allies

Western leaders are navigating a complex relationship with U.S. President Donald Trump by employing a dual strategy of short-term flattery and concessions, while simultaneously building long-term alternatives to their alliance with the U.S. and the Republican Party. In contrast, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has focused on flattery and abandoned the pursuit of alternatives, such as support from the Democratic Party, ties with Europe, and maintaining red lines with the White House.

Netanyahu's reliance on Trump intensified following the International Criminal Court's arrest warrant in 2024, making him personally dependent on the president. This dependence, the article argues, jeopardizes Israel's security for the sake of Netanyahu's personal survival. While other world leaders treat Trump as a necessary but unpredictable partner, combining personal appeasement with strategic "insurance," Netanyahu has placed all his bets on Trump and the Republican party, a strategy that began as early as 2015 with his speech against the Iran nuclear deal.

Western allies, while engaging in personal flattery, have actively diversified their international partnerships. Canada's Finance Minister François-Philippe Champagne stated, "The world has changed. America has changed. So we need to change too." Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney emphasized the need for "middle powers" to unite, forming international frameworks like "Partners for Multilateralism." Similarly, Japan and South Korea are expanding military cooperation with other Asian nations, and Saudi Arabia and Turkey are hedging their risks through defense agreements with Pakistan.

A key divergence lies in their response to U.S. actions regarding Iran. No Western country joined the U.S. and Israel's military actions against Iran, and many condemned them. Even Italy, considered a close U.S. ally, refused to allow the use of a base in Sicily for operations. Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, despite her prior close relationship with Trump, publicly rebuked him after he claimed she "begged" for a photo opportunity.

Netanyahu's gamble on Trump, including his 2019 campaign featuring Trump and his confidant Ron Dermer's assertion that support from evangelical Christians (largely Trump supporters) is more crucial than from American Jews (who largely vote Democrat), has alienated Democrats. This is evident in polls showing strong opposition among Democrats and independents to the military action in Iran, which Netanyahu advocated. The article notes that a meeting between Netanyahu and Trump was not planned for a September 2026 rally, just before the U.S. midterm elections.

While Israel's dependence on U.S. weaponry necessitates a close relationship with the incumbent president, the article argues this dependence should ideally foster strong ties with both American parties and European nations. Netanyahu acknowledged the need to "break free from dependence" but has not presented a practical plan. The article concludes that Netanyahu's actions have consistently risked Israel's security for his personal political survival.