Bolsonaro Leads Lula in Brazil Election, Second Round Likely

Flavio Bolsonaro, son of former President Jair Bolsonaro, is currently leading in the first round of Brazil's presidential election, held Sunday, contrary to polls that predicted an advantage for incumbent President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva. With approximately 85% of precincts counted, Flavio has secured 48.5% of the vote, compared to 43.5% for Lula. The Datafolha polling institute anticipates a second round between the two on October 25th, as neither is expected to surpass the 50% threshold needed for an outright victory in the first round. This outcome mirrors the 2022 election, where the elder Bolsonaro initially led before Lula overtook him as more votes were tallied.

In the gubernatorial races, the right-wing also saw successes. Tarcísio de Freitas, governor of the large state of São Paulo, was re-elected in the first round, defeating Fernando Haddad of Lula's Workers' Party and pledging his support to Flavio in the runoff. Bolsonaro's party candidates also won in other states.

The election took place amidst the ongoing coup trial of Jair Bolsonaro, who is serving a 27-year sentence for attempting a coup. Flavio, who presents himself as a more moderate version of his father and has pledged to pardon him if elected, has also vowed to appoint five Supreme Court justices. The trial has led to a significant dispute with former U.S. President Donald Trump, who has criticized the proceedings and imposed trade sanctions on Brazil. Trump stated he is "following very closely" the election but avoided endorsing a candidate, though he previously hosted and praised Flavio.

Another controversy, the "Banco Master" case involving banker Daniel Workuaro, who is accused of billions in fraud, has also cast a shadow. Flavio, who was investigated for money laundering in connection with the case, admitted to receiving millions for a film about his father but denies wrongdoing. The case has primarily impacted Lula, as it involves Judge Alexandre de Moraes, whom Lula has previously supported. Moraes claims the investigation against him is politically motivated due to his role in Bolsonaro Sr.'s conviction.

Israel is closely monitoring the election. Lula, who has drawn criticism for comparing the Gaza war to the Holocaust and accusing the Netanyahu government of genocide, is considered persona non grata in Israel. Flavio, conversely, is strongly pro-Israel, like his father, and has pledged to strengthen ties with the U.S. and Israel. He has committed to moving Brazil's embassy to Jerusalem if elected. Results from Brazilians abroad show Lula winning overwhelmingly in Ramallah, while Flavio secured a significant majority in Tel Aviv. The final outcome on October 25th will determine if Latin America's largest economy joins a right-wing trend or remains a "red stronghold."