Israel Enters Final Three Weeks Before Elections

With three weeks remaining until the 26th Knesset elections on October 27th, Israel's political system is entering its final stretch. Currently, 38 parties are registered to compete, though only about 13 are expected to pass the electoral threshold.

The election committee's schedule is tight. Sunday marked the deadline for submitting judicial rulings on disqualifications and approving lists and candidates. Following the disqualification of Balad chairman Sami Abu Shehadeh and the approval of MK Ofer Cassif, the Joint List, and Ra'am, no further major dramas are anticipated.

Campaigning will intensify on October 13th with the start of official propaganda broadcasts on television and radio, which will continue until election day. A significant date is October 15th, when voting will take place at Israeli diplomatic missions abroad and on naval vessels. Ballots from overseas will be sent to Israel and counted after election day in the country, alongside double envelopes from within Israel.

By October 16th, parties must finalize surplus vote agreements. Several parties, including those in the "change bloc" like Gadi Eisenkot's party and Yair Golan's Democrats, and Naftali Bennett's party and Avigdor Lieberman's Yisrael Beiteinu, have already announced such agreements. Arab parties, ultra-Orthodox parties, and potentially Likud with the Religious Zionism and Otzma Yehudit parties are also expected to sign agreements.

Election day is October 27th, with voting hours generally from 7 AM to 10 PM. Identification will be required, and citizens can only vote at their assigned polling station. Official election results are expected on November 4th, with appeals to be heard by November 18th.

Following the election, President Isaac Herzog will consult with faction representatives before tasking a Knesset member with forming a government within seven days. The designated member will have 28 days to form a coalition, with a possible 14-day extension. If unsuccessful, the mandate can be returned to the president to assign to another candidate. Once a government is formed, it requires a vote of confidence from the Knesset. Until then, the outgoing government will continue as a caretaker administration.

Political commentators noted that these elections are particularly consequential, occurring after the October 7th attacks and amidst significant security, economic, and social challenges. The discourse has been framed around stark choices, such as a "Netanyahu and Haredi government" versus an "Eisenkot and Arab government." However, analysts urge voters to look beyond fear-based politics and consider leadership, policy, and the ability to manage the country's complex issues, including security, economy, education, and social cohesion. The role of the Arab vote is highlighted as potentially decisive, particularly concerning issues like rising crime in Arab communities and government policies on home demolitions, which are motivating increased turnout. Parties like Ra'am and the Joint List are campaigning on messages of hope and change, while some Arab voters may also consider Zionist parties like the Democrats.