October 7th Shatters Opposition, Reshapes Political Landscape

The political landscape in Israel has been dramatically altered since the October 7th attacks, with the opposition, in particular, experiencing a significant decline in support and relevance. Prior to the Hamas assault, parties like Benny Gantz's National Unity and Yair Lapid's Yesh Atid were projected to win substantial numbers of Knesset seats. However, recent polls indicate a drastic drop, with their combined projected seats falling from 47 to a mere five. The focus of the opposition has also shifted; whereas previously it was centered on the judicial overhaul, it now appears to be grappling with the issue of the Haredi (ultra-Orthodox) sector. The public has reportedly distanced itself from the protest leaders, many of whom are now associated with the Democratic party. The possibility of a 'Change Government 2.0,' similar to the previous coalition, has diminished due to apprehension regarding Arab parties and their refusal to label Hamas and Hezbollah as terrorist organizations. A recent poll revealed that a third of those surveyed, even within the opposition, support disqualifying the Ra'am party, which was crucial for the formation of past governments led by Naftali Bennett and Yair Lapid. The article suggests that Benjamin Netanyahu's continued leadership, despite widespread dissatisfaction, has inadvertently provided the opposition with a common adversary, preventing them from needing to formulate a cohesive alternative agenda. The next government, it is argued, will face significant international pressure regarding the Palestinian issue in Judea and Samaria, a shift from the previous government's focus on Gaza. The article also discusses the potential for a unity government, noting that while past attempts have failed, a more equitable power-sharing arrangement might be more stable. However, public support for a rotation government between Netanyahu and Gadi Eisenkot is low, with significant opposition, particularly from Arab voters. The current political climate is characterized by a wide gap between public sentiment, which has moved rightward, and the perceived positions of politicians. The article concludes by noting that without a clear majority for any single bloc, an equitable unity government excluding Haredi and Arab parties, as well as figures like Avi Golan and Itamar Ben-Gvir, might offer a path out of the cycle of elections.