Ex-Shin Bet Chief Warned of War Weeks Before Hamas Attack

Weeks before the October 7th Hamas attack, then-Shin Bet chief Ronen Bar initiated an unusual step by requesting to appear before the secret services subcommittee of the Knesset's Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee. During the classified discussion, Bar presented a briefing titled "The Perfect Storm," warning lawmakers of the possibility of a multi-front war. According to YNET, Bar's central message was that the deep divisions within Israeli society were eroding deterrence, potentially leading Israel's enemies to view the situation as an opportunity for an offensive.

This warning adds to previous reports of alerts conveyed to the political echelon throughout 2023. Sources within the security establishment indicated that Bar approached the committee because he felt the political leadership was not giving his warnings sufficient weight. They claimed that an additional alert was delivered in September, after votes on canceling the reasonableness clause, reinforcing the concern that the security threat persisted beyond the political dispute over judicial reform.

The committee warning follows earlier alerts from that summer. In July 2023, Bar updated Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and later Opposition Leader Yair Lapid about an "alert of war." Netanyahu's office countered that the alert did not pertain to Gaza. Simultaneously, Military Intelligence Directorate (Aman) sent Netanyahu several letters warning of Israel's enemies identifying a "window of opportunity."

The revelation emerges amidst a sharp public dispute between Netanyahu and Bar regarding responsibility for the October 7th failures. Netanyahu has accused Bar of negligence and made serious allegations, claiming that on the night of the attack, Bar knew of a "real danger" but did not inform him. Bar, in turn, has accused Netanyahu of selectively using classified protocols and demanded the full protocols be published, reportedly intending to sue Netanyahu for defamation.