Shin Bet Chief Warned of 'Perfect Storm' Weeks Before Oct. 7

Weeks before the October 7th Hamas attacks, Shin Bet head Ronen Bar warned of an impending "perfect storm" to lawmakers, according to a report by Ynet. Bar's request to speak before the Knesset's Subcommittee on Secret Services was unusual, as such discussions are classified. Sources confirmed Bar informed the MKs of a potential imminent, multi-front war, with the presentation titled "The Perfect Storm." The lawmakers understood the core message to be about the erosion of deterrence due to internal Israeli societal divisions, which emboldened adversaries.

This revelation adds to a series of intelligence warnings received by the political echelon prior to October 7th. In July 2023, Bar had already contacted Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu with a "warning of war" and later updated opposition leader Yair Lapid. Netanyahu's office at the time stated the warning was not about a "war in Gaza." Additionally, the IDF's Intelligence Directorate sent dramatic letters to Netanyahu that summer, detailing how Israel's enemies perceived a historic opportunity. It is understood that Netanyahu did not order significant security adjustments or hold structured discussions on the implications of these warnings.

Supporters of Netanyahu claimed these warnings were related to Knesset votes on the reasonableness bill and thus not taken seriously. However, security officials stated that Bar's decision to address the subcommittee indicated his concerns were not being adequately heeded by the political leadership. This suggests that the deep concerns within the security establishment persisted long after the judicial overhaul votes, and that the summer warnings were not politically motivated.

The disclosure comes amid a renewed public dispute between Netanyahu and Bar regarding their knowledge and actions before October 7th. Netanyahu accused the former Shin Bet chief of "failures and crimes" and alleged Bar knew of a "real danger" on the day of the massacre but failed to inform him. Bar responded by accusing the Prime Minister of selectively and manipulatively presenting documents and protocols, announcing his intention to sue for libel, and calling for the full publication of the materials.

Central to their dispute are excerpts from security discussions Netanyahu released in February. His office highlighted Bar's remarks from an October 1st, 2023, assessment, where he supported humanitarian aid and stated an "initiated round" was not feasible at that time. However, other reports from the same meeting indicate Bar also stated that Sinwar "feels strong," that confrontation was necessary, and that an operational plan for Gaza was required. The full transcript of this meeting has not been released, leaving the complete context disputed.