Retired Colonel Assesses Hezbollah's Weakening Two Years After Nasrallah's Killing

Two years after the killing of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah, retired Colonel Ronen Itzik, who served in combat roles in southern Lebanon, believes Israel has achieved "hermetic victory" over the organization's leadership and capabilities. Itzik stated that he did not anticipate such significant achievements, especially considering the challenges faced. He argues that Israel's successes in Lebanon against Hezbollah are the most substantial compared to other fronts.

Itzik elaborated that Nasrallah was not just a Hezbollah leader but a regional figure with deep influence, suggesting he was more of a driver of the "Shiite axis" strategy than Iran. The assassination of Nasrallah is considered a major historical achievement. Itzik described Nasrallah as a leader shaped since the 1980s with a sharp worldview, capable of identifying and exploiting Israeli weaknesses, such as the perceived fear of Hezbollah's missile arsenal, which he believes led Israel to avoid necessary actions, like confronting Iran's nuclear program.

He further detailed Hezbollah's significant operational capabilities, including a precise missile arsenal and the ability to establish fortified positions for potential incursions into northern Israel. Itzik asserts that the IDF has systematically dismantled these capabilities over the past two years, particularly after the Majdal Shams incident, leading to the collapse of Hezbollah's established narrative and operational strength. This weakening, he contends, has reduced the organization to a level where even the Lebanese president can speak of its destruction, something previously unthinkable.

Despite these achievements, Itzik acknowledged that the enemy always attempts to recover. He drew a parallel to the October 7th attack, which undermined confidence in Israel's stated successes. However, he maintained that Hezbollah's ability to conquer the Galilee and significantly impact Israel has been eliminated, reducing it to minor, underground capabilities. He emphasized that while defeated enemies will try to regroup, this does not negate Israel's victory.

Itzik attributed these successes to strong intelligence capabilities, enabling precise strikes against leadership and key figures, and to Israel's reserve forces, which allowed for aggressive combat on multiple fronts. He also credited the Mossad's "outside the box" innovations, citing the pager incident as a historical event, and stressed the importance of maintaining readiness in a hostile region.