Egypt and UAE Warned Israel of Hamas Attack Before October 7

A recent investigation by The Atlantic, corroborated by The New York Times, reveals that Israel received at least two significant warnings about an impending Hamas attack prior to the October 7th massacre, which were allegedly not fully conveyed to the relevant security bodies. The Egyptian warning was reportedly delivered by Abbas Kamel, then head of Egyptian intelligence and a close confidant of President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi, during a secret visit to Israel on September 26, 2023. Kamel's message, according to an Israeli source cited in The Atlantic, was a stark warning: "Gaza will explode in your face," though no specific date was given. This aligns with earlier reports by Israeli journalist Smadar Peri, who faced initial denials from the Prime Minister's office.

The New York Times report, based on conversations with two sources, details a separate warning conveyed to Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu by UAE President Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan around the same period. This warning explicitly stated that Hamas was planning a significant offensive, again without specifying a date. The article suggests that Soufian Abu Zaida, a former Palestinian Authority minister, may have been the source for both warnings. Abu Zaida himself admitted in a recent Egyptian television interview that he relayed messages directly from Yahya Sinwar, Hamas's leader in Gaza, who dictated the exact wording.

According to the report, the context for these warnings included growing concerns within Hamas about the policies of Netanyahu's right-wing government, particularly regarding the conditions of security prisoners and the status quo at the Temple Mount. Additionally, Hamas leader Sinwar was reportedly anxious about the accelerating normalization talks between Saudi Arabia and Israel, fearing that Saudi Arabia might not condition normalization on a resolution to the Palestinian issue. Sinwar allegedly conveyed a demand for the release of dozens of prisoners in exchange for quiet, a demand that was reportedly not clearly answered by Israel.

Further compounding the issue, The New York Times claims to possess minutes from a security discussion held on October 1, 2023, after both warnings were received. These minutes reportedly do not mention either warning. The report indicates that Netanyahu opposed proposals to target Hamas leaders, preferring to maintain quiet in Gaza to advance the Saudi track. If a state inquiry committee were to investigate, accessing these protocols and involved individuals could potentially challenge the narrative that Netanyahu was unaware of the impending threat.