Egypt Warned Israel of Hamas Attack Days Before October 7

Egypt's former intelligence chief, Abbas Kamel, secretly visited Israel just 11 days before the October 7 Hamas attacks, warning that the organization appeared to be preparing a major assault and that time was running out to prevent escalation. This revelation comes from a comprehensive investigation by The Atlantic, which cites dozens of Israeli, Egyptian, Arab, American, and European sources. Kamel reportedly conveyed to Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's office a message about "something unusual, a monstrous operation" being planned from Gaza. The Prime Minister's office denied receiving such a warning at the time.

The Atlantic investigation details that Kamel arrived at Ben Gurion Airport on September 26, 2023, on a private jet linked to Egyptian intelligence. His visit lasted only 67 minutes before he returned to Cairo. While the specific individuals Kamel met with remain undisclosed, sources from seven countries confirmed the visit's purpose was to deliver an urgent warning about Gaza. Kamel allegedly suggested that economic concessions to Hamas might help prevent conflict, with one former Israeli official describing the message as "Gaza will explode in your face." However, the warning did not include specific details about the date, target, or nature of the attack, nor did it describe the large-scale invasion that ultimately occurred.

Kamel's visit was unusual, as he rarely traveled to Israel. His previous known visits were in 2021, where he helped mediate ceasefires. The timing of his September visit is also notable, occurring shortly before Netanyahu participated in a ceremony commemorating the 50th anniversary of the Yom Kippur War, where he spoke about intelligence failures and overlooked warnings. Despite the warning, the Prime Minister's office later denied receiving any direct or indirect warning from Egypt. The head of Israel's National Security Council at the time, Tzachi Hanegbi, also stated he was unaware of Kamel's visit or any such warning from Egypt.

According to the investigation, while much intelligence in the weeks prior focused on potential rocket fire and localized escalation, some sources within Gaza provided Egypt with more alarming information, prompting Cairo and the UAE to warn Israel of a potentially more serious threat. International mediators had also received vague but concerning signals from Gaza for months. Tensions were rising due to Qatar's delayed financial aid and Israeli restrictions on the Erez crossing, which impacted thousands of Gazan workers. Despite these tensions and Hamas's demands, an agreement was reached to de-escalate, with Hamas reportedly using these negotiations to continue its attack preparations.

Further warnings from Egypt continued until October 5, just two days before the attacks, conveying a sense of extreme urgency without specific details. Jordan's intelligence chief also sent messages to his Israeli counterparts about a volatile regional situation, though this warning focused more on the West Bank. U.S. intelligence also noted an increased threat from Hamas, but reports primarily considered scenarios of prolonged rocket fire, not a large-scale combined assault. Notably, the Biden administration was reportedly unaware of the specific warnings passed from Egypt and the UAE to Israel until months after the October 7 attacks.