UAE Warned Israel of Hamas Attack Before October 7

Intelligence from the United Arab Emirates alerted Israel's Shin Bet security agency in September 2023 to the possibility of Hamas taking violent action by the end of that month. This warning was corroborated by another intelligence channel received by the Shin Bet. A few days later, UAE President Mohammed bin Zayed Al Nahyan spoke with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, specifically to confirm that the message had been received and conveyed to Netanyahu. Netanyahu reportedly acknowledged the information and stated it was being handled.

Following the end of September without incident, Israeli officials reportedly informed their UAE counterparts that their source had been incorrect, as nothing had occurred. The Hamas surprise attack on Israel then began on October 7.

Separately, Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar sent a message to Israel weeks before October 7, warning of an "earthquake in the prisons" due to the issue of prisoners. Israeli security officials initially interpreted this as a reference to the case of Elizabeth Tsurkov, an Israeli researcher held in Iraq, as new intelligence emerged regarding her situation. An Iranian official had approached Hamas, suggesting they take responsibility for negotiations regarding Tsurkov's release, with the Iraqi group holding her agreeing to this move. This confluence of events led Israeli security to believe Sinwar's message was related to Tsurkov.

Earlier reporting by Israeli journalists indicated that the UAE president had urged Netanyahu to act on the Hamas threat, but Netanyahu responded calmly, believing Hamas intended to act in the West Bank and assuring the UAE president that Israel was prepared for any scenario.