Egypt Warned Israel of Gaza "Explosion" Days Before Oct. 7

Egypt's intelligence chief, Abbas Kamel, secretly visited Israel 11 days before the October 7th Hamas attack and warned Israeli officials that Gaza would "explode in your faces" if Israel did not change its policy towards the Strip. According to a report in The Atlantic, Kamel recommended providing economic concessions to Hamas to prevent an escalation. The visit, which lasted about an hour, occurred shortly before Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's speech marking the 50th anniversary of the Yom Kippur War.

Sources speaking to The Atlantic indicated that Egyptian intelligence continued to pass warnings to Israel about the situation in Gaza up to two days before the attack. On October 5th, just two days before the massacre, Egypt conveyed another message to Israel regarding the possibility of an eruption in the Strip. Jordan also reportedly sent similar messages.

While Kamel's warning was dire, it did not include specific operational details such as the date, target, or precise nature of the impending attack. It remains unclear to whom exactly in Israel the message was delivered.

Meanwhile, the United States also detected signs of deterioration. The CIA reportedly issued an assessment on September 28th suggesting Hamas might launch an operation involving rocket fire into Israel, with another assessment on October 5th failing to predict the full scale of the attack.

Additionally, in late September, UAE President Mohammed bin Zayed warned Prime Minister Netanyahu that Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar was planning a "significant move" against Israel. According to Haaretz, bin Zayed urged Netanyahu to act, but the Prime Minister reportedly responded calmly, believing Hamas intended to act in the West Bank and that Israel was prepared for any scenario. The UAE president expressed concern that the event could lead to bloodshed and destabilize the region, potentially harming the Abraham Accords.