US Intel Suggests Saudi Arabia Pursuing Nuclear Weapons Capability

A secret assessment by U.S. intelligence agencies, shared with Congress, indicates that Saudi Arabia has not abandoned the military option for its nuclear program, potentially altering the strategic balance in the Middle East and posing a new threat to Israel. The findings, reported by The Washington Post, emerge amidst a nuclear cooperation agreement between the Trump administration and Saudi Arabia, which grants U.S. companies access to multi-billion dollar atomic projects and aims to counter Russian and Chinese influence.

Concerns within the agreement center on Saudi Arabia's ability to enrich uranium domestically. While initial enrichment levels are capped below 5%, they could be raised to under 20% with further agreement. Although this does not equate to building a nuclear bomb, it significantly shortens the technological path to weaponization should Riyadh decide to pursue it. The agreement also lacks a requirement for Saudi Arabia to adopt the IAEA's Additional Protocol, which provides broader inspection powers.

For Israel, the potential for another regional power to develop nuclear capabilities is a significant strategic concern, particularly given the uncertainty surrounding Iran's nuclear program. Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman previously stated in 2018 that Saudi Arabia would seek nuclear weapons if Iran did. The new U.S. intelligence assessment suggests this scenario remains a possibility, though Washington maintains it will not assist Riyadh in developing a nuclear bomb, and Saudi officials insist their program is purely for peaceful purposes.

The situation also impacts Israeli-Saudi relations, as the Trump administration has linked broader strategic agreements with Riyadh to the normalization of relations between the kingdom and Israel. This condition reportedly remains in place. The nuclear cooperation deal is currently undergoing a 90-day review in Congress, where lawmakers could attempt to block it, though overriding a presidential veto would require a two-thirds majority in both chambers.

Israel's primary concern is the future trajectory of the Saudi program. Even a civilian nuclear infrastructure, including uranium enrichment capabilities, could fundamentally change the strategic landscape in the Middle East, especially if Iran continues to advance its own nuclear potential.