US Intelligence: Saudi Arabia Pursues Nuclear Weapons Capability

U.S. intelligence agencies believe Saudi Arabia has not abandoned the possibility of developing its own nuclear weapons, according to secret documents shared with Congress and reported by The Washington Post. This assessment emerges amid a civilian nuclear cooperation agreement between the Trump administration and Riyadh, which aims to grant U.S. companies access to multi-billion dollar projects in Saudi Arabia and bolster Washington's ties with the kingdom amidst competition from China and Russia.

The agreement has raised concerns regarding Saudi Arabia's potential to enrich uranium domestically. While initial enrichment levels are capped below 5%, they could be raised to just under 20% after further study and a separate written agreement. This level is significantly closer to what is needed for weapons-grade material. Furthermore, the deal does not require Riyadh to adopt the International Atomic Energy Agency's Additional Protocol, which grants inspectors broader access and the ability to investigate undeclared nuclear activities.

U.S. officials emphasize that the agreement does not support a Saudi nuclear weapons program. The State Department stated that the U.S. "does not support and will not support a Saudi nuclear weapons program" and that the treaty is intended to expand peaceful nuclear energy while maintaining the highest possible non-proliferation standards. Saudi officials also maintain their program is peaceful, with Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman stating it will be developed with "the highest level of responsibility and transparency."

However, Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman stated in 2018 that Riyadh would pursue nuclear weapons if Iran developed them. The current U.S. intelligence assessment gains particular significance given the ongoing conflict with Iran and uncertainty surrounding its nuclear program. Non-proliferation experts fear that Saudi Arabia's domestic uranium enrichment capability could trigger a new regional nuclear arms race.

The agreement is currently undergoing a 90-day review period in Congress, where lawmakers could attempt to block it, though overriding a presidential veto would require a two-thirds majority in both chambers. Washington reportedly continues to link a broader strategic agreement with Saudi Arabia to the kingdom's normalization of relations with Israel.