US Intelligence Warns Saudi Arabia May Pursue Nuclear Weapons

Classified documents provided to Congress reveal that the U.S. intelligence community assesses Saudi Arabia is not ruling out the option of developing a nuclear weapons program. This assessment comes amid concerns over a July agreement between the U.S. and Riyadh that allows Saudi Arabia to develop a civilian nuclear program with less stringent oversight than typically required. Notably, the deal grants Saudi Arabia the ability to enrich uranium domestically, a departure from similar agreements with other nations, potentially up to a relatively high level of 20%.

The agreement, finalized after years of negotiations, provides a legal framework for U.S. companies to operate in Saudi Arabia and develop nuclear facilities. However, Saudi Arabia, whose de facto ruler Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman stated in 2018 that the kingdom would pursue nuclear weapons if Iran did, refused to relinquish its ability to enrich uranium independently or to sign the Additional Protocol, a stricter inspection treaty with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) that the UAE has adopted.

Instead, the U.S.-Saudi deal includes American oversight, which Washington claims is sufficient to prevent diversion for military purposes. However, the terms have raised significant concerns among experts and Democratic lawmakers in Congress. While the agreement initially requires Saudi Arabia to import enriched uranium, it includes a two-year study on the economic feasibility and necessary safeguards for domestic enrichment. If deemed feasible, U.S. and foreign companies would build an enrichment facility, initially limited to 5% enrichment. Further studies could explore increasing this to 20%, a level considered close to the 90% required for weapons-grade uranium, raising fears of material diversion.

The Trump administration argued that U.S. involvement would prevent such diversion and that the deal is crucial to prevent Saudi Arabia from seeking assistance from China or Russia. Documents sent to Congress also included the State Department's position, which appears more confident in the agreement's safeguards and Saudi assurances. Riyadh has not directly responded but referred to previous statements by its Energy Minister asserting the program's peaceful intent and commitment to transparency.

President Trump indicated the deal would not proceed without Saudi Arabia normalizing relations with Israel as part of the Abraham Accords. However, the agreement has been submitted to Congress, where overcoming a presidential veto would require a two-thirds majority in both the Senate and House. Senator Jeff Merkley criticized the deal, stating that Saudi Arabia's insistence on domestic enrichment indicates a desire for a program beyond purely civilian purposes and that the U.S. should not rely solely on Saudi assurances.