Ben Gvir's Bold Demands Signal Strategic Play for 2030 Elections

National Security Minister Itamar Ben Gvir has made a striking demand for the next government, stating he expects the Defense Minister portfolio for himself and Justice Minister for his party's second-in-command, Tali Gottlieb. While many observers questioned the seemingly audacious request, analysts suggest it is a strategic move by Ben Gvir, looking beyond the upcoming 2026 elections towards those in 2030. His party, Otzma Yehudit, appears to be preparing for a potential role in the opposition in the next government. Prime Minister Netanyahu has repeatedly expressed a desire for a "broad national government," but his past behavior, including strained relations with Ben Gvir and a tendency to favor left-leaning coalition partners to define his own right-wing credentials, suggests he might prefer Benny Gantz over Ben Gvir. Ben Gvir's political trajectory shows that his party experienced significant growth after serving in opposition during the Bennett-Lapid government. During that period, he was vocal about the coalition's perceived failures and positioned himself as a more effective leader, which translated into substantial electoral gains in 2022. This strategy appears to be repeating, with Ben Gvir setting high expectations now, knowing he will likely be in opposition and can attribute any unfulfilled promises to Netanyahu's refusal to grant him key ministerial roles. His stated goals, such as encouraging emigration from Gaza and disarming the Palestinian Authority, while appealing to his base, lack concrete implementation plans. Similarly, calls to dismiss the Attorney General and curb the Supreme Court's power are seen as slogans rather than practical policies. Ben Gvir's focus seems to be on leveraging the opposition to gain public credit, potentially positioning himself for a more prominent role, possibly even a rotation agreement with Netanyahu, in the 2030 elections if he successfully cultivates an image of consistently challenging the government from the right.