Israeli Election Polls Show Wide Discrepancies in Party Strength

Five recent opinion polls conducted in Israel between September 23rd and 25th have revealed significantly different projections for the upcoming Knesset elections, particularly concerning the Likud party and the bloc supporting Benjamin Netanyahu. The polls, published by various Israeli media outlets, show the Likud party receiving between 18 and 32 seats, while the bloc supporting Netanyahu ranges from 49 to 63 seats. These discrepancies are attributed to differing methodologies employed by polling companies and varied definitions of political blocs by media organizations.

One poll by NEXT DATA for Channel 14 on September 23rd, surveying 647 respondents, projected Likud with 32 seats and Gadi Eisenkot's The National Unity Party with 22. This poll also indicated the pro-Netanyahu bloc securing 63 seats, while other Jewish parties would get 45, and Arab parties 12.

Conversely, a survey by Yossi Tatika and Adgenda for Zman Israel on September 23-24, with 500 respondents, placed The National Unity Party at 23 seats and Likud at 21. This poll showed the coalition bloc and the "change bloc" each receiving 53 seats.

Another poll by Direct Polls for i24NEWS on September 24th, surveying 537 people, predicted Likud would win 27 seats and The National Unity Party 21. This survey suggested the coalition bloc would gain 60 seats, the opposition 47, and Arab parties 13.

A poll by Maagar Mochot for Channel 16/News1, conducted September 23-24 with 553 respondents, showed The National Unity Party leading Likud 23 seats to 19. This poll indicated the coalition bloc, including "Amcha Israel," and the anti-Netanyahu bloc each receiving 52 seats, with Arab parties at 12.

Finally, a Lazar Research poll for Maariv on September 23-24, involving 610 participants, placed The National Unity Party at 22 seats and Likud at 18. This poll projected the coalition bloc, including "Amcha Israel," securing 49 seats, while Zionist opposition parties would get 55, and Arab parties 12.

Across the five polls, The National Unity Party outperformed Likud in four surveys, with a lead ranging from one to four seats. Likud only surpassed The National Unity Party in the Channel 14 and i24NEWS polls. The projections for the Netanyahu-supporting bloc showed even greater variation, from 49 to 63 seats.