Israeli Election Polls Show No Bloc Securing Majority Ahead of Vote

With 39 days remaining until the 26th Knesset elections, Israeli media outlets have released a series of polls with varying results. Across four surveys published by Friday morning, September 18, the Likud party's projected seat count ranged from 18 to 27 mandates. Gadi Eisenkot's "Yashar" party was forecast to receive between 21 and 24 seats, while Naftali Bennett's "BeYachad" was predicted to secure 9 to 14 mandates.

None of the polls indicated that any single political bloc would independently achieve the 61 mandates required for a majority in the Knesset. A poll by "Maariv" showed "Yashar" with 23 seats and Likud with 18, while "BeYachad" received 13. "Democratim" and Yisrael Beiteinu (NDI) were projected at 9 seats each, "Otzma Yehudit" at 8, and Shas, "Yahadut HaTorah," and the United Arab List at 7 each. "Tzionut HaDatit VeZeut" was at 6, Ra'am at 5, and Ofer Winter's "Amcha Israel" and Yoaz Hendel/Yaron Zelicha's joint list each garnered 4 seats. In Maariv's breakdown, Netanyahu's bloc received 50 mandates including "Amcha Israel," while Zionist opposition parties reached 54 without the Hendel-Zelicha list, and Arab parties totaled 12.

The Kantar Institute's poll for "Israel Hayom" predicted "Yashar" with 22 seats and Likud with 20. "BeYachad" was at 13, "Democratim" at 9, and NDI and "Otzma Yehudit" at 8 each. Shas, "Yahadut HaTorah," and the United Arab List were at 7, "Tzionut HaDatit VeZeut" at 6, Ra'am at 5, and "Amcha Israel" and the Hendel-Zelicha list at 4. This survey showed both the coalition and Zionist opposition blocs at 52 mandates, with Arab parties at 12, and the Hendel-Zelicha seats unassigned.

A poll by Yossi Tattika for "Zman Israel" projected "Yashar" with 24 seats and Likud with 22. "BeYachad" was at 14, NDI, Shas, and "Yahadut HaTorah" at 9 each, "Democratim" and the United Arab List at 8, and "Otzma Yehudit" at 7. Ra'am received 6 seats and "Tzionut HaDatit VeZeut" 4. In this model, "Amcha Israel" and the Hendel-Zelicha list failed to pass the electoral threshold. Netanyahu's bloc was projected at 51 mandates, his Zionist opponents at 55, and two Arab parties at 14. This poll surveyed 500 respondents between September 16-17, with a margin of error of 4.4%.

Direct Polls for i24NEWS presented the most divergent results, with Likud at 27 seats and "Yashar" at 21. "Democratim" was forecast at 10, "BeYachad" at 9, and NDI and "Yahadut HaTorah" at 8 each. "Otzma Yehudit," Shas, and the United Arab List were at 7, "Tzionut HaDatit VeZeut" at 6, and Ra'am and "Amcha Israel" at 5. According to i24NEWS's classification, the coalition bloc received 60 mandates, the opposition 48, and Arab parties 12. This poll surveyed 519 adults with a stated margin of error of 4.2%.