Conflicting Polls Show Vastly Different Political Landscapes
Two election polls released Tuesday evening present starkly contrasting views of Israel's political system. A poll by Channel 14 projects the Likud party as the largest with 32 Knesset seats, while a Channel 13 poll places it significantly lower with only 18 seats, a difference of 14 mandates.
Despite the discrepancies, both polls show complete agreement on Benny Gantz's National Unity party, consistently awarding it 22 seats. However, Channel 14 positions National Unity in second place behind Likud, whereas Channel 13 identifies it as the leading party.
The bloc projections also diverge significantly. Channel 14 forecasts the right-wing bloc securing 63 seats, with 45 for the anti-Netanyahu bloc and 12 for Arab parties. In contrast, Channel 13's poll indicates the coalition bloc at 51 seats, the opposition bloc at 52, Arab parties at 13, and a centrist list led by Yoaz Hendel and Yaron Zelekha receiving 4 seats, unaligned with either major bloc.
Further divergence is seen regarding Ofer Winter's party, "Am Israel." Channel 13's poll shows it surpassing the electoral threshold with 5 seats, while Channel 14's poll places it at 1.9%, failing to enter the Knesset. Hendel and Zelekha's list also fares differently, with 4 seats in Channel 13 and only 2.2% in Channel 14.
Questions about the prime ministership also yield different results. In a direct comparison in the Channel 14 poll, Netanyahu receives 53% versus Gantz's 47%. However, the Channel 13 poll shows Gantz leading Netanyahu 48% to 36%, with 16% undecided. The article notes that different question phrasing makes direct numerical comparison difficult.
Methodological differences are highlighted as a key factor for the discrepancies. The Channel 14 poll surveyed 647 respondents using NEXT DATA, while the Channel 13 poll included 1,503 respondents with a reported margin of error of 2.5%. Variations in sampling, weighting, and data collection methods can account for substantial differences between polls.
