Three Polls Show Divergent Israeli Election Scenarios

Recent polls conducted by News 14, i24NEWS, and Maariv present a varied political landscape for Israel, with differing predictions for party standings and bloc strengths. While two polls indicate the Likud party leading, one survey places "Yashar!" (National Unity) under Gadi Eisenkot in the top position. The right-wing bloc's projected seat count ranges significantly, from a high of 64 seats in the News 14 poll to a low of 50 in the Maariv survey. Overall, the election race remains tight, with smaller parties near the electoral threshold potentially influencing the final outcome.

The News 14 poll suggests a strengthening Likud, gaining one seat to reach 31, while "Yashar!" loses one seat, dropping to 20. "Amcha Yisrael" under Ofer Vinter shows a slight increase, and the "Reservists and Economic Party" also sees minor gains. This poll projects the right-wing bloc with 64 seats, the left-wing bloc with 44, and Arab parties with 12.

The i24NEWS poll shows Likud stable at 27 seats, with "Yashar!" continuing a gradual decline to 21 seats. "Otzma Yehudit" led by Itamar Ben-Gvir loses one seat, falling to 7, while "Amcha Yisrael" gains a seat to reach 5. This survey predicts 60 seats for the right-wing bloc, 48 for the left, and 12 for Arab parties.

In contrast, the Maariv poll indicates a significant drop for Likud to just 18 seats. However, the coalition bloc maintains 50 seats, partly due to "Amcha Yisrael" crossing the electoral threshold and "Religious Zionism-Zehut" gaining a seat to reach 6. The Zionist opposition, excluding the Hendel and Zlicha parties, is projected to win 54 seats, with Arab parties holding steady at 12. The "Reservists and Economic Party" also crosses the 3.25% electoral threshold with 3.5%, and "Amcha Yisrael" reaches 3.4%.

Aggregating the three polls, Likud averages 25.3 seats, followed by "Yashar!" with 21.3 seats. Other parties like Shas and Yisrael Beiteinu average 8 seats, while "Otzma Yehudit" and "Yahadut HaTorah" average approximately 7.7 seats. The "Joint List" consistently receives 7 seats across all polls. "Amcha Yisrael" and the "Reservists and Economic Party" face uncertainty regarding the electoral threshold, with their seat counts fluctuating significantly between polls. The average projection for the right-wing bloc is 58 seats, compared to 45.7 for the left-wing bloc and Zionist opposition, with Arab parties consistently averaging 12 seats.