Likud Debates Strategy Shift on Potential Rival Ofer Winter

The Likud party is reportedly considering a significant shift in its election strategy concerning Ofer Winter, a potential rival. Initially, Likud aimed to weaken Winter's position, hoping he would withdraw from the race and his supporters would return to the broader right-wing bloc. However, internal polls suggest Winter, while currently below the electoral threshold, is close enough to pose a risk to Netanyahu's bloc if he remains in the running. Sources indicate that Winter's withdrawal could reduce the right-wing bloc's projected seats from 61-62, while his continued presence might mobilize additional support and help him cross the threshold, potentially leading to the opposite of Likud's intended outcome.

This has led to internal discussions within Likud about an alternative approach: instead of continued opposition, the party might seek an agreement with Winter to consolidate votes. Some party officials believe that continuing to discredit him is a mistake and that he could potentially secure four to five seats. The deadline for formalizing any electoral agreements with the Central Elections Committee is October 16, leaving Likud time to reassess based on new polling data and campaign developments. A key concern for Netanyahu's camp is the possibility of Winter aligning with Avigdor Lieberman after the elections, though supporters of a new strategy point to Winter's current positioning within the right-wing camp.

Concurrently, Likud is focusing on increasing voter turnout among its own supporters, aiming to gain an additional 2-3 seats. The party is analyzing past voting data to identify areas with high Likud support but low overall turnout, particularly targeting traditional Likud voters, including the elderly, who may face logistical challenges or feel their vote is insignificant. The campaign plans to monitor turnout on election day and contact non-voting supporters through on-the-ground representatives and a phone system to encourage participation, acknowledging the significant resources and effort required for this mobilization.