Super El Niño Event Could Trigger Extreme Weather in Israel

Researchers from the University of Chicago's Climate Impacts Laboratory are warning that the "Super El Niño" phenomenon could lead to approximately 451,000 excess deaths globally by February 2027 due to extreme heat. While countries like Nigeria, Indonesia, and Sudan are expected to bear the brunt of heat and drought impacts, Israel faces a different threat. Despite El Niño typically being associated with ocean warming, scientists explain that it releases significant heat into the atmosphere, increasing its capacity to hold moisture. This, combined with a warmer-than-usual Mediterranean Sea and atmosphere in the region, creates ample "fuel" for rain systems. When cold air from Europe arrives in winter, it clashes with this warm, moist air, generating violent weather events and intense storms.

The Israel Meteorological Service has issued a warning that a particularly strong El Niño is expected to develop in the fall of 2026, increasing the likelihood of extreme weather events during the rainy season. One scenario being examined involves a potential rainfall of about 300 mm within a short four-hour period. Such unprecedented precipitation could cause massive flooding and life-threatening flash floods, particularly in coastal cities and the lowlands, including the Gush Dan region, Haifa, Netanya, Ashdod, Ashkelon, and Nahariya.

In addition to winter floods, the phenomenon is expected to bring severe heatwaves and an extended fire season to Israel during the transitional and summer seasons. Furthermore, the anticipated severe damage to agricultural yields worldwide due to global droughts and floods is projected to cause a surge in the prices of imported food to Israel.