Palestinian Elections Uncertain Amidst Deep Political Crisis
The Palestinian political situation faces significant uncertainty regarding upcoming elections, with analysts suggesting that elections alone cannot resolve the deep-seated crises plaguing Palestinian legitimacy, national projects, leadership, institutions, and strategies. The article argues that the current predicament is exacerbated by the most extreme Israeli government since Israel's founding, which is actively pursuing a plan to resolve the conflict and liquidate the Palestinian cause. A radical review and a fundamental shift in political direction are needed to build a national alternative that redefines the national project, institutions, leadership, strategies, and forms of struggle. Elections are seen as a component of change, not its core, especially under Israeli occupation.
The approach of candidate list submission deadlines has brought a surreal quality to the situation, with the fate of the elections remaining ambiguous. Some factions express reluctance or disbelief in the possibility of elections under current conditions, yet are preparing for them. There is a prevailing assessment that Israel, with American backing, might prevent the elections from taking place, possibly rescheduling them for a later date. This uncertainty stems not only from external factors but also from internal calculations, particularly Fatah's apprehension about potential election results reflecting declining popularity of the leadership and the Palestinian Authority due to economic, social, and political crises, the outcomes of Fatah's Eighth Conference, and the absence of a comprehensive political program. The decision-making process for elections is described as less institutional and more dependent on individual choices that can change last minute.
Multiple scenarios are possible: elections proceed, they are postponed, Israel prevents them, or they are disrupted by administrative or security pretexts. Other possibilities include limited "electoral complexes," national dialogue, reviving the Legislative Council, appointing National Council members, or forming a constituent assembly. An initial presidential decree focused on the National Council, with a preference for the new council electing the Palestinian president. However, external pressure, particularly from Europe, shifted the priority to legislative elections, postponing presidential ones. If elections are delayed or blocked, focus might shift to forming the National Council and expanding the "electoral complex" model to appoint representatives for the West Bank and Gaza.
The article stresses the critical importance of prioritizing the Palestinian people's resilience and survival over national objectives. It suggests that past calculations may have been linked to the possibility of early Israeli elections and the Trump plan for Gaza, including Hamas relinquishing power and disarming. These calculations have not materialized, and the assessment of Hamas's weakness appears inaccurate, as the movement plans to participate through non-Hamas figures to avoid repercussions. Polls indicate a decline in popularity for both Hamas and Fatah, though they remain the dominant forces. A broad electoral alliance involving Hamas, the reformist current (Mohamed Dahlan), and Nasser Al-Qudwa, potentially supported by Islamic Jihad, could significantly alter the landscape. The complexity increases with the possibility of multiple Fatah lists and support from influential leaders for certain lists, including one potentially backed by Marwan Barghouti, who is seen as having the highest chance in a presidential election. Contesting elections under these conditions, declining presidential popularity, a widening gap between the Authority and society, succession struggles, rising unemployment and poverty, irregular salaries, corruption allegations, a failed political program, and the Authority's inability to counter annexation and displacement plans, is a high-risk gamble.
Postponement of elections appears likely, given the lack of genuine electoral activity, but requires a suitable "exit strategy" and timing. The Election Commission is hesitant to legitimize a postponement or Israeli prevention, possibly with American backing. Therefore, not holding elections remains the most probable scenario. However, a postponement without policy changes, improved performance, altered decision-making mechanisms, removal of candidacy restrictions, and an end to unilateral political and electoral processes will not alter the reality. The article cautions against basing Palestinian strategy on anticipated changes in US or Israeli stances or assuming Hamas is finished or that a less extreme Israeli government would fundamentally alter its approach to Palestinian rights. Even an Israeli opposition government is unlikely to recognize the Palestinian right to self-determination. The core issue transcends the election date; it is a fundamental blockage in the political path. The requirements for free and fair elections, respecting their outcomes, and lifting political restrictions on candidates must be agreed upon.
To revitalize the Palestinian situation, five priorities are outlined: 1. Prioritizing resilience and survival, focusing on reducing losses, preserving gains, and thwarting plans to liquidate the Palestinian cause through a suitable struggle strategy, unified national leadership, and available forms of struggle. Rebuilding Gaza is also a key priority. 2. Relying on the people rather than the current paralyzed political system, fostering new alternatives through popular forces and initiatives. 3. Changing the course and building a national alternative through comprehensive reform that redefines the national project, sets achievable goals, rebuilds institutions and leadership, and adopts appropriate strategies and forms of struggle, alongside a revised social contract and national charter. 4. Achieving a unified national stance on elections, agreeing on requirements for free and fair elections, respecting results, lifting restrictions, and demanding international guarantees against Israeli interference. If postponed, a clear date must be set, "electoral complexes" abandoned, and serious consideration given to holding National Council elections where possible. 5. Building a broad national front that offers practical alternatives in politics, economics, and society, engaging in current struggles rather than just articulating ideals. A realistic yet revolutionary national option is needed, one that acknowledges and works to change the reality without succumbing to it or bypassing it.
