Palestinian Elections Face Uncertainty Amidst Political Maneuvering
The Palestinian legislative elections, initially slated for November 28, are increasingly likely to be postponed to next year or replaced by the formation of a new National Council. This latter option, which would involve electing a president for the State of Palestine, is reportedly opposed by both Washington and Tel Aviv, who view it as a unilateral move. The Palestinian leadership is exploring alternatives, including forming the National Council through appointments and electoral colleges, with delegations visiting Palestinian communities abroad to organize these selected colleges. Another possibility being discussed is reviving the dissolved Legislative Council, with some legal interpretations suggesting its dissolution was unconstitutional. However, the prevailing sentiment is to prepare for elections while simultaneously bracing for potential delays or cancellations.
The stated reason for postponement centers on the ongoing Israeli occupation of Gaza, with approximately 70% of the territory under control, hindering the logistical requirements for elections, such as ballot boxes, indelible ink, and freedom of movement for election officials and observers. The Central Elections Commission had proposed a solution for Jerusalem, allowing East Jerusalem residents to vote in any ballot box due to proportional representation, but this was not adopted. The author suggests the primary reason for postponement is a fear of certain defeat, rather than the occupation itself, questioning why the occupation wasn't a barrier when the election decree was initially issued.
Several hypotheses are offered for this behavior. One is a pre-meditated intention to avoid elections, using the occupation as a known excuse. Another suggests an expectation that the Trump plan for Gaza would be implemented, potentially excluding Hamas, thereby pressuring the Netanyahu government to facilitate elections, likely leading to a Fatah victory. However, Hamas's decision to participate, and its proposal for a broad coalition, has complicated these calculations. The current Israeli government, regardless of its electoral outcome, is seen as unwilling to empower Palestinians with elections that would legitimize the Palestinian Authority, which Israel actively seeks to undermine. Renewing Palestinian legitimacy and elected institutions is viewed as crucial for maintaining the possibility of self-determination and statehood, and for reunifying the West Bank and Gaza.
The US has not given the green light for elections, reportedly overlooking Israel's non-compliance with the roadmap for the Trump plan, which involved Hamas relinquishing power and disarming. The current Israeli government is also seen as reluctant to allow elections before its own potential elections, fearing it could hurt their chances. Therefore, elections are not anticipated. If they proceed, they are expected to be highly competitive, potentially a "bone-breaking" contest rather than one focused on unity. Elections held under occupation, division, and without a comprehensive national vision could lead to further fragmentation. The results might be confiscated by the occupation, or electoral decrees could be issued to nullify unfavorable outcomes. Fatah's own lack of readiness, as expressed by Mahmoud Aloul, and the widening gap between the leadership and the public due to political deadlock, corruption, and economic hardship, also support the postponement scenario.
The author argues that elections are not the priority in the current context of efforts to liquidate the Palestinian cause. The priority should be on ensuring the Palestinian people's resilience and survival by stopping the occupation's actions. Elections, without a national project and consensus, could legitimize the PA as merely an administrative body for occupied populations. Free and fair elections with respected results are unlikely under current regional and international power dynamics. The most probable scenario is the formation of the National Council through appointment and an open-ended postponement of legislative elections until the regional political landscape, particularly in Israel, becomes clearer. Any national consensus on postponement must include binding deadlines for presidential and legislative elections, halt appointment-based National Council formation, and revert to electing the National Council. A comprehensive national dialogue is needed to address existential challenges, agree on a common program, redefine the national project, and establish clear objectives and methods of struggle.
