Palestinian Elections Face Hurdles Amid Internal Divisions and External Factors
The Palestinian Authority (PA) has announced legislative elections scheduled for November 28, marking the first such vote in two decades. However, significant obstacles threaten their actual occurrence. A senior PA delegation, including Vice President Hussein al-Sheikh, recently visited Cairo to discuss the elections and the potential formation of a broad bloc against Fatah. These discussions followed a meeting of various Palestinian political factions in the Egyptian capital.
Dr. Michael Milstein, an expert on the Palestinian arena, explains that international pressure, particularly concerning Gaza's future, has pushed PA President Mahmoud Abbas (Abu Mazen) to advance the elections. The decision to hold only parliamentary elections, rather than presidential ones, is a risk management strategy; a defeat in parliament could signal a loss in presidential elections and lead to their cancellation. Milstein notes that the last serious attempt at elections in 2021 was canceled, partly due to Fatah's internal divisions and the expectation of a Hamas victory.
A major hurdle is the demand by PA official Hussein al-Sheikh that elections be held in East Jerusalem, allowing its residents to vote within Israeli municipal boundaries. Milstein suggests this condition is intended to provide an external excuse, specifically Israel, for canceling the elections, mirroring the 2021 cancellation. Additionally, Hamas's participation is contingent on its recognition of PA agreements, including the Oslo Accords, which Hamas has historically rejected. Milstein anticipates that either Israel will prevent the elections or Hamas will create complications.
The Palestinian public is described as deeply disillusioned due to internal divisions, ongoing conflict, and a perceived lack of international attention. Milstein observes that Palestinian interest is currently focused more on Israeli elections, believing they will have a greater impact on their future. Prominent potential candidates include Marwan Barghouti, who consistently leads presidential polls but faces challenges running from prison. Other figures like Nasser al-Qudwa and Salam Fayyad are also mentioned, though Fayyad's support is low.
Former Gaza security chief Mohammed Dahlan, now based in Abu Dhabi and supported by the UAE and Egypt, is also a significant player, particularly popular in Gaza. A recent poll showed him leading in hypothetical presidential elections. Milstein believes Dahlan's re-emergence is driven by a desire to influence decision-making, especially regarding Gaza. While Dahlan has ties to Hamas leadership abroad, a joint list is considered unlikely, though future coordination on Gaza is possible. Dahlan is reportedly using the election discourse to promote himself in Gaza as a potential peacemaker.
Milstein is skeptical about the elections taking place, citing a lack of genuine American interest, unlike in 2006 when the US actively pushed for elections. He believes the current US administration is preoccupied with Iran and lacks the motivation or bandwidth for the Palestinian issue, suggesting that external intervention, rather than a sovereign Palestinian decision, was key to past elections.
