Low Voter Turnout Could Shift Israeli Election Balance, Poll Suggests
Upcoming Israeli elections may yield unexpected results, particularly if right-wing voter turnout is low, according to recent polling data. Sociologists suggest that a decline in participation among right-wing voters could significantly alter the political landscape, potentially leading to a victory for an opposition bloc led by Gadi Eisenkot and Avigdor Lieberman. Research indicates varying levels of voter motivation across different demographics. While approximately 87% of Eisenkot's supporters are reportedly determined to vote, only 77% of Likud party supporters express the same commitment. Despite a general strengthening of the right-wing bloc in recent surveys, voter mobilization remains a critical factor. Experts are particularly noting the lower intended turnout among religious citizens, with only 67-69% planning to vote, leaving a substantial portion of potential votes unused. Voter turnout in the Arab sector is projected to be even lower, around 50%. These untapped reserves or potential boycotts by certain groups could be decisive in the election outcome.
Recent polls also show shifts in party standings. The Likud party, led by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, has lost a seat, now projected to win 18 Knesset seats, its lowest result in the current campaign. Naftali Bennett's Bayahad party also dropped one seat to 13. Gadi Eisenkot's Yashar! party experienced a more significant decline, losing two seats but remaining the largest party with 23 seats. Yair Golan's Democrats saw their projected seat count decrease by one to nine.
Several parties maintained their previous standings, including Yisrael Beiteinu, Otzma Yehudit, Yahadut HaTorah, Shas, and the United List. Ra'am, led by Mansour Abbas, also held steady with five seats. In contrast, Religious Zionism-Zeut gained one seat, reaching six, while Am Echad Israel retained four seats. A party of reservists and economists also crossed the electoral threshold, securing four seats.
The balance between major political blocs has also shifted. The Zionist opposition, excluding the reservists and economists party, is projected to win 54 seats. Netanyahu's governing bloc currently holds 46 seats, which would increase to 50 with the addition of Ofer Winter's party. Arab parties collectively maintain 12 seats.
