New Poll Reveals Key Concerns for Likud Ahead of Elections

A new poll conducted by Maariv and analyzed by sociologist Dr. Menachem Lazar indicates that several parties are precariously close to the electoral threshold ahead of upcoming elections. Lazar highlighted that "Am Israel," "Reservists," and the "Economic Party" are currently hovering just above the 1% vote share needed to pass the threshold. He also noted that "Religious Zionism" and "Zeut," while clearing the barrier, cannot yet be considered secure.

Benny Gantz's party is mentioned as the only smaller list currently polling above 1%, though still far from the threshold. Lazar observed that the Zionist opposition bloc has stabilized, with an even number of parties likely to benefit from residual vote agreements, preventing vote wastage.

The poll also focused on the Arab sector's voter turnout, which Lazar stated is not increasing. He explained that higher turnout among Arab citizens, who constitute about 21% of Israel's population, could significantly boost the number of mandates for Arab parties, potentially reaching 17 seats if turnout matches that of the Jewish population. Currently, the Hadash-Ta'al-Balad alliance has not realized its potential, while Ra'am, led by Mansour Abbas, remains stable with around five mandates.

Within the right-wing bloc, internal struggles are impacting the Likud party. Lazar indicated that infighting between Likud, "Jewish Power," "Religious Zionism," and "Am Israel" is not benefiting the Likud. The ultra-Orthodox parties are also experiencing internal divisions, with "Yahadut HaTorah" facing a rift between its Hasidic and Lithuanian factions, and Shas remaining stagnant at approximately seven mandates.

Lazar anticipates that voter decisions will solidify following an upcoming holiday, with the percentage of undecided voters expected to decrease.