Israeli Election Poll Reveals Sharp Differences in Voter Confidence

A new poll conducted by Maagar Mochot for Channel 7, following the finalization of party lists, reveals significant disparities in voter certainty across the political spectrum in Israel. The "Israel Election Barometer" project categorizes parties into three groups based on the confidence levels of their supporters.

The most stable group includes the Democrats, United Torah Judaism, Likud, Shas, and Religious Zionism-Identity. Within these parties, between approximately 65% and 79% of voters are completely certain of their choice. The Democrats show the highest certainty, while Shas and Religious Zionism-Identity have about two-thirds of their voters fully committed. The "undecided" percentage in this group is notably low, ranging from 0% for Shas to about 5% for Religious Zionism-Identity, indicating a relatively consolidated support base.

A middle group comprises Noam, Yachad (with Tropper), Otzma Yehudit, and Yisrael Beiteinu. Here, the percentage of voters completely certain of their choice ranges from about 43% for Yisrael Beiteinu to 58% for Noam. The "undecided" segment is larger, between 7% and 17%. These parties have a clear core of support, but also a significant layer of voters whose choices are less firm.

The least stable group includes parties led by Bennett (Yamina), Winter (Tzedek-Imanu), and the Reservists-Economic party (Handel and Zelicha). In this category, only 21% to 31% of voters are completely certain of their choice. The "undecided" percentage is higher, at around 13% for Bennett's party, 20% for Winter's, and 28% for the Reservists-Economic party, suggesting a larger portion of their support may shift as the election campaign progresses.

The poll also highlights the impact of new voters. A low certainty rate doesn't always signal weakness; it can stem from new supporters who are still making up their minds. For instance, among veteran Otzma Yehudit supporters, 61% are certain, compared to only 17% of new joiners. A similar, even starker, difference exists for Bennett's party, with 43% of veterans certain versus just 2% of new supporters. Conversely, Likud's high certainty rate aligns with a predominantly veteran voter base. The survey involved 1,109 respondents after the list submissions deadline.