James Tavernier Leads Israeli League Free-Kick Scorers

Maccabi Tel Aviv defender James Tavernier has emerged as the top free-kick scorer in the Israeli Premier League since the 2019-20 season, netting nine goals. This tally surpasses the combined total of the next two highest scorers, Eliel Peretz and Guy Badash, who each have three goals. The article explores whether Tavernier's success is due to his individual skill or a shift in team tactics.

Data compiled since the 2019-20 season shows Tavernier leading active players with nine free-kick goals. Other notable scorers include Eliel Peretz (3), Guy Badash (3), Omri Altman (3), Stav Turi'el (2), Dan Biton (2), Maxim Fushchankin (2), and Matan Hozez (2). The all-time record, held by Itzik Zohar with 39 goals over 12 seasons, appears unlikely to be broken, reflecting a broader trend of fewer direct free-kick goals in modern football.

Experts suggest that the rise of Expected Goals (xG) theory has led teams to favor set-piece routines or attempts to create better scoring opportunities from within the penalty area, rather than direct shots from distance. In the 2022-23 season, only nine players scored from free kicks, with Stav Turi'el scoring twice. The previous season saw ten players score from free kicks. This contrasts sharply with the 1990s, when players like Itzik Zohar were renowned for their free-kick prowess.

The article posits that the modern approach, influenced by xG, prioritizes mathematically advantageous situations, which are typically closer to the goal. A direct free kick from 25 meters has an estimated 4-6% chance of scoring, whereas a cross or pass increases the probability of a goal. Players like Yarden Shua, who took the most free kicks last season (72), only took six shots on target from them, with one on goal. Similarly, Turi'el took six shots on target from 63 attempts. This often results in crosses aimed at players capable of converting in the box.

While Tavernier has a strong scoring record, his role may evolve. Maccabi Tel Aviv might encourage him to take more direct shots, especially if Kenny Miller plays alongside him, as he did in previous scoring instances. However, the article predicts Tavernier might provide more assists from free kicks than goals, given the different style of play in Israel compared to Scotland and the team's strategic preference for creating chances through movement and passing rather than long-range shots. Ultimately, the team's victory remains the primary objective.