Likud's Electoral Map Shifts Dramatically Since 2009

An analysis of official election data from 2009 to 2022 reveals significant shifts in the Likud party's support base across Israeli cities, despite a slight overall national increase in votes. While the Likud garnered 21.6% of the national vote in 2009 and 23.4% in 2022, the geographical distribution of its support has changed considerably.

Cities in the periphery, such as Dimona, Beersheba, and Kiryat Shmona, showed a strong upward trend in Likud support, peaking in the March 2020 elections. Dimona, for example, saw its Likud vote jump from 28.2% in 2009 to a high of 61.8% in March 2020, before declining to 50.9% by 2022. Beersheba followed a similar pattern, reaching 50.2% in 2020 and falling to 40.3% in 2022.

Interestingly, March 2020 marked the peak for Likud support in all 18 cities analyzed, including some in the center of the country like Givatayim, Ra'anana, and Kfar Saba. However, a consistent decline in Likud votes was observed across all 18 cities between 2020 and 2021. While some cities experienced a slight recovery between 2021 and 2022, Likud's support in all analyzed locations remained below their 2020 highs.

Simultaneously, other right-wing parties, including New Hope and Religious Zionism, gained significant traction. Cities like Lod, Ramla, Acre, and Ashdod have seen a substantial decrease in Likud support since their 2020 peak, with some falling below their 2013 levels. The analysis suggests that the periphery, which had shifted towards Likud between 2015 and 2019, has been slowly moving away since 2020, raising questions about where these votes will go in future elections, especially after the October 7th events.

The methodology is based on official Central Elections Committee data for all Israeli localities from 2009 to 2022, with 18 cities selected for trend illustration. The 2013 data reflects the joint "Likud Beitenu" list.