Likud's Electoral Map Shifts Dramatically Since 2009

An analysis of official election data from 2009 to 2022 reveals significant shifts in the Likud party's support base across Israeli cities, despite a slight national increase in its vote share. While the Likud garnered 21.6% of the national vote in 2009 and 23.4% in 2022, the geographical distribution of its support has changed considerably.

The city of Dimona, once a Likud stronghold, saw its support surge from 28.2% in 2009 to a peak of 61.8% in March 2020, before declining to 50.9% in 2022. This pattern of a long-term rise, peaking in 2020, is mirrored in many peripheral cities like Beersheba, Kiryat Shmona, Eilat, Ashkelon, Nahariya, Afula, and Tiberias. Beersheba, for instance, rose from 27.8% in 2009 to a high of 50.2% in 2020, then fell to 40.3% in 2022.

March 2020 marked the highest point for Likud in all 18 analyzed cities, including some in the center like Givatayim, Ra'anana, Kfar Saba, and Hod Hasharon. However, between 2020 and 2021, the party lost votes in every single one of these cities. A slight recovery was observed in some cities like Eilat and Tel Aviv between 2021 and 2022, but overall support remained below the 2020 peak.

Concurrently, other right-wing parties such as New Hope, Yamina, and the Religious Zionism party gained significant traction, absorbing some of the Likud's former voters. Cities like Lod, Ramla, Acre, and Ashdod have shown a marked decline since their 2020 peaks, with Lod dropping from 38.9% to 28.5% by 2022, falling below its 2013 level.

The analysis suggests that the periphery, which largely shifted towards Likud between 2015 and 2019, has been slowly moving away since 2020. The key question for future elections is where these votes will go, especially in the post-October 7th context, with Lod, Ramla, Acre, Ashdod, Dimona, and Tiberias identified as cities to watch due to significant erosion of Likud support.