National Unity Government Emerges as Potential Israeli Political Option

Current Israeli political polls indicate a near-even split between the Netanyahu bloc and the opposition, with each securing approximately 53 seats in the Knesset, while Arab parties hold 12. This electoral stalemate makes traditional coalition-building difficult, especially given the post-October 7th rejection of alliances with Arab parties. Consequently, unconventional political arrangements, such as a national unity government, are being considered.

Gadi Eisenkot is presented as a potential unifier, open to partnerships with Arab and Haredi parties and not ruling out Netanyahu if elections remain indecisive. His support for political settlements with Palestinians, including rejecting annexation and advocating for separation, aligns with U.S. preferences. This stance resonates with a "No to Racism" petition signed by 500 prominent figures, which called for including Arab citizens in government based on principles of independence and service, mirroring Eisenkot's positions and those of Mansour Abbas's United Arab List regarding civil service and the Jewish nature of the state.

Netanyahu faces increasing pressure from his coalition and the U.S. administration. The declining popularity of Itamar Ben-Gvir's Otzma Yehudit party, along with Bezalel Smotrich, has become a political liability for Netanyahu, both domestically and internationally. Washington condemns their positions, viewing Ben-Gvir as a continuation of Kach, a designated terrorist group, and opposing Smotrich's influence over the Religious Zionism movement. While acknowledging Netanyahu's responsibility for them, the U.S. believes their removal could stabilize his government and pave the way for a broader national unity government capable of addressing U.S. priorities, including relations with Saudi Arabia, Lebanon, Syria, and potential understandings with Iran.

U.S. assessments suggest a desire to alter Israel's ruling coalition and policies, as current Israeli actions are seen as hindering American regional objectives and posing risks to Israel itself. American support has shifted from Naftali Bennett to Gadi Eisenkot, who is seen as a strong candidate capable of bridging traditional divides and favoring political settlements with Palestinians. The U.S. views the Palestinian issue as central to regional stability, leading to repeated calls for a two-state solution to "save Israel from itself" and restore its regional standing.

In the event of continued electoral parity, a U.S.-favored scenario involves a rotating national unity government between Netanyahu and Eisenkot, excluding Ben-Gvir and Smotrich, and aligning with Washington's agenda, particularly regarding Palestine. An Eisenkot-led minority government relying on an Arab party is deemed fragile and likely to face significant opposition and potential violence from organized right-wing elements, reminiscent of past governmental instability. While election postponement or continued deadlock remain possibilities, their likelihood diminishes closer to election day. Regionally, U.S. signals indicate a push for political solutions post-Israeli and U.S. midterm elections, requiring a strong, broad center-right Israeli government capable of making decisions aligned with international and regional demands.