Netanyahu, Eisenkot, and Lieberman Poised for Possible Rotation Government in Israel

As Israel approaches its upcoming elections, the political landscape remains uncertain with no clear majority for any bloc. Current projections suggest that at least two of three key figures, Benjamin Netanyahu, Gadi Eisenkot, and Avigdor Lieberman, are likely to serve as prime ministers in a potential rotation arrangement.

Netanyahu faces significant challenges to maintain his leadership of the national camp. His primary goal is to remain prime minister, even if it requires forming a broad unity government or a rotation government. Retaining this position would solidify his political power, allow him to complete ongoing geopolitical and security initiatives, and send a strong message to the judiciary that he has broad public support. Additionally, a unity or rotation government could prevent legislation targeting him personally if Likud is excluded from the coalition. A rotation deal with Eisenkot might also pave the way for Netanyahu to run for president in 2028.

Eisenkot’s challenges differ. His rising poll numbers compel him to quickly recruit loyal and qualified candidates for his party. If he cannot secure a 61-seat majority but is tasked with forming a government, he faces two main options: first, a unity government with Likud and other parties, contingent on him serving first as prime minister in a rotation and pre-agreed legislative frameworks; second, a government relying on ultra-Orthodox parties or Ra’am, depending on coalition stability and public opinion.

Lieberman holds a pivotal role in these scenarios. Known as a hawkish politician, he has ruled out alliances with Netanyahu, ultra-Orthodox, or Arab parties, effectively holding the keys to government formation if no bloc achieves a majority. While not dismissing Likud as a partner, Lieberman’s demands will likely be the highest due to his consistent adherence to his principles. His party, Yisrael Beiteinu, remains a right-wing option with stable support, attracting national camp voters. Should Lieberman compromise on one of his three key conditions, he must weigh which to relax and the political cost of entering a rotation government.

Given the fragmented mandate, a post-election government breaking traditional bloc lines with a rotation among Netanyahu, Eisenkot, and Lieberman is plausible, reflecting the complex and fluid nature of Israel’s political future.