Israeli Opposition Bloc Faces Post-Election Leadership Battle Over Prime Minister Role

As Israel's elections approach, the opposition bloc against Benjamin Netanyahu is preparing for a fierce internal struggle over who will become prime minister if they succeed in forming a government. Former IDF Chief of Staff Gadi Eizenkot is pushing the idea that the leader of the largest party in the bloc should automatically become prime minister, a stance he has promoted even before the vote. Recent polls show Eizenkot's party, Yisra, leading with 24 seats, followed by Naftali Bennett's Yachdut with 15 seats and Avigdor Lieberman's Yisrael Beiteinu with 10 seats. However, Bennett and Lieberman refuse to commit to supporting Eizenkot as prime minister, citing concerns about his lack of political experience and potential compromises with ultra-Orthodox parties.

The precedent set by Bennett in 2021, when he became prime minister despite his party's small size by forming a rotation agreement with Yair Lapid, has changed coalition dynamics. Political strategist Moshe Klughaft explains that smaller parties holding the key to a majority can leverage significant power, sometimes outweighing larger parties. This dynamic means that if Eizenkot cannot form a government without Lieberman, the latter's leverage could force concessions or even leadership changes.

Bennett emphasizes experience and governance ability, contrasting himself with Eizenkot, while Lieberman openly demands the prime minister role and refuses to pledge support to the largest party's leader. Lieberman's party also insists on strict policy conditions, such as universal conscription and a state investigation into the events of October 7, which could complicate coalition talks.

The legal framework in Israel does not require the prime minister to be the leader of the largest party, allowing for various coalition outcomes, including rotation agreements or even appointing a less prominent Knesset member. This flexibility, while legal, raises questions about legitimacy and public acceptance, as seen in the backlash to Bennett's premiership.

In the lead-up to the elections, Eizenkot is campaigning to reduce Bennett and Lieberman's bargaining power by signaling willingness to form a government with fewer than 61 seats, relying on abstentions from Arab parties. Meanwhile, Bennett and Lieberman focus on their strengths: Bennett on governance experience and grassroots connection, Lieberman on appealing to right-wing voters opposed to Netanyahu. All three leaders stress that their goal is to replace Netanyahu, but none openly commit to backing Eizenkot as prime minister, leaving the post-election coalition formation uncertain and potentially contentious.