Israeli Election Stalemate Points to National Unity Government
Recent Israeli election polls indicate a near-even split between the two main political blocs, with Channel 11 showing a 52-52 tie and Channel 13 reporting 53-53. This deadlock makes a "national unity government" a realistic possibility, as neither bloc can form a narrow majority government of 61 Knesset members. The potential for the United Arab List to provide the necessary votes for a "change" government led by Benny Gantz has also diminished.
The narrowing political differences, particularly evident after candidate lists were finalized, have blurred the lines between the "change bloc" and the right. Gantz's "Yishai" party, for instance, has presented a predominantly right-wing slate, described by one commentator as "studded with figures from the hard right, soft right, and religious Zionism, who it is difficult to imagine could or even want to replace Netanyahu and Smotrich."
Gantz's list, including eight candidates from the religious Zionist sector, reflects his strong opposition to a Palestinian state, a stance that aligns more closely with Netanyahu than previous political partnerships, according to Haaretz editor Aluf Benn. Benn suggests that the electoral stalemate, with no clear path to a stable 61-seat government for either candidate, leaves a unity government as the most likely outcome. While Netanyahu could aim to remain interim prime minister and Gantz could form a minority government supported externally, both scenarios would likely lead to new elections.
A more probable scenario, Benn posits, is an "equal" unity government between Netanyahu and Gantz, framed as a "Zionist government" focused on security and excluding "extremists" like Yair Golan and Itamar Ben-Gvir, as well as Arab parties. This would satisfy Netanyahu's supporters by keeping him in power, while his opponents would see it as a way to freeze the judicial overhaul and halt the outgoing government's policies.
Writer Uri Misgav does not rule out a unity government involving Netanyahu and Gantz, given Gantz's right-leaning list and "Gantz will unite Israel" campaign slogan. He expresses concern that rational political forces are yielding to the "Kahanist and ultra-Orthodox" camp, despite warnings from the UAE, Egypt, and Israeli security chiefs. Another potential scenario, favored by the article's authors, is a "national unity government" led by Gantz, under a deal where Netanyahu exits politics in exchange for a general pardon for his legal cases and support for a presidential run after Isaac Herzog's term ends. The article concludes that Mansour Abbas and the Arab "change current" may see their influence wane, with the focus shifting to sidelining Ben-Gvir and Smotrich.
