Houthis Seize Key Yemen Island, Tightening Grip on Bab el-Mandeb Strait

The Houthi group has significantly enhanced its control over the vital Bab el-Mandeb Strait shipping lane following the physical seizure of Perim Island. This strategic move allows the Houthis to monitor vessels with basic observation tools, making traditional defensive measures for ships less effective. Experts warn this proximity will enable the Houthis to employ cheaper weaponry for attacks, effectively giving them the power to decide who passes through the strait.

Despite the Houthi gains, major disruptions to global shipping are not anticipated. According to maritime expert Igal Maor, shipping companies have already adapted to the Houthi threat since December 2023 by rerouting vessels around Africa. This longer, though more economical, route has led to the development of new port infrastructure and schedules, making a return to the Red Sea route unlikely even with increased Houthi activity.

However, the intensified control could severely impact Saudi Arabia, which faces dual blockades of the Bab el-Mandeb and Strait of Hormuz. The recent closure of a key oil pipeline to the Red Sea has left Saudi Arabia with limited export options, forcing tankers on a lengthy journey to East Asia. The UAE also faces challenges, as tankers bound for Europe via the Suez Canal must still transit the Bab el-Mandeb.

Egypt's Suez Canal revenues, already down 80% due to the disruptions, face further threats to their partial recovery. Global energy prices are also at risk of rising as regional exporters resort to more expensive, longer routes. For Israel, direct impact is minimal, as most imports already bypass Africa. However, indirect effects through potential global energy price hikes are possible.

Addressing the Houthi threat is complex. Financial incentives have failed, and experts like Yuval Ayalon suggest a significant ground force is needed to dislodge the Houthis. The formation of such a force is uncertain, with Western nations hesitant to deploy troops and regional powers like Saudi Arabia and the UAE potentially unable to lead. Turkey is identified as a potential player due to its military presence in Somalia and a recent security agreement with Saudi Arabia and Pakistan, though its involvement remains unclear. Ayalon cautions that without a broad international coalition, similar threats may emerge elsewhere.