Houthis Tighten Grip on Key Strait, Threatening Global Trade and Regional Stability

Recent military gains by Yemen's Houthi rebels have significantly enhanced their ability to disrupt maritime traffic in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, a critical chokepoint for global shipping. The rebels now control nearly the entire Yemeni side of the strait, including Perim Island, which allows for easier identification and targeting of vessels. This physical proximity means Houthis can now use simpler observation methods and potentially cheaper weaponry to attack ships, rendering some existing defensive measures obsolete. Experts suggest this shift could make the Houthis de facto gatekeepers of the strait.

Despite the increased Houthi control, the global maritime shipping industry anticipates minimal disruption. Shipping experts note that since late 2023, when Houthi attacks began, most container shipping has already rerouted to the longer, though more expensive, route around Africa. The industry has adapted to this new reality, establishing new logistical networks and schedules. Therefore, even an escalation of Houthi actions is not expected to significantly impact containerized trade.

However, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates face severe consequences. Saudi Arabia, already impacted by disruptions at the Strait of Hormuz, has had to close its Red Sea oil pipeline after repeated attacks, forcing it to use lengthy routes for oil exports. The UAE also faces challenges as tankers heading to Europe via the Suez Canal must still pass through the Bab el-Mandeb. Egypt is also heavily affected, with its Suez Canal revenues plummeting by 80% since the disruptions began, with only partial recovery due to oil tanker traffic.

For Israel, the direct impact on its economy is considered negligible. Most goods reaching Israel have already been rerouted around Africa since 2024, similar to other Mediterranean countries. The Israeli port of Eilat, the only one directly exposed to the Red Sea, handles a very small percentage of the country's foreign trade and has suffered due to the original Houthi disruptions. The primary indirect effect on Israel is expected to be through rising global energy prices, as increased shipping costs for regional oil exporters will likely translate to higher prices worldwide.

Potential solutions to the Houthi challenge are complex. Military intervention to remove the Houthis from their controlled territory is seen as the most effective, but the willingness of regional powers like Saudi Arabia and the UAE to commit significant ground forces, or the West to deploy troops, is uncertain. Turkey, with its military presence in Somalia and a potential trilateral security agreement with Saudi Arabia and Pakistan, is mentioned as a possible key player. Ultimately, experts believe the international community must form a broad coalition to address the threat, or similar crises may emerge elsewhere.