Houthis Test Saudi Alliances, Create Dilemma for Trump

The Houthi rebels' control over the Bab al-Mandab strait has significantly boosted their power, while Saudi Arabia faces a diplomatic and strategic setback. The Houthis have leveraged this control to apply pressure on Saudi Arabia, with Iran reportedly sending messages to U.S. President Donald Trump indicating no desire for a direct confrontation. This situation exacerbates Saudi Arabia's existing challenges, including blockades in the Strait of Hormuz and attacks on Aramco facilities, demonstrating the ineffectiveness of its "Mecca Alliance" with Turkey and Pakistan. Drone attacks have also crippled the "East-West" oil pipeline, leading to the lowest Saudi oil production since the 1990s.

Experts like Dr. Yoel Guzansky of the Institute for National Security Studies point to Iranian influence behind the Houthi actions, suggesting the rebels are using Bab al-Mandab as leverage. Dr. Yossi Mann from Bar-Ilan University notes that the events are part of a longer trend of declining Saudi influence in Yemen, fueled by unmet financial and energy commitments to southern Yemeni forces. This has eroded trust, making it difficult for Saudi Arabia to regain influence.

The Yemen crisis also highlights internal Gulf rivalries, particularly between Saudi Arabia and the UAE. The Presidential Leadership Council (PLC), formed as a compromise between Riyadh and Abu Dhabi, struggles with internal divisions over Yemen's future, reflecting the broader competition between Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MBS) and Crown Prince Mohammed bin Zayed (MBZ). This rivalry extends to economic competition, with both nations vying to attract major international corporations.

For the U.S., the escalating conflict presents a challenge ahead of the midterm elections, as rising oil prices impact the American economy. The average price of gasoline has surged, with some states seeing prices exceed $9 per gallon. While the Houthis have signaled to the U.S. that the blockade is limited to Saudi Arabia, Oman is attempting to mediate the situation. Dr. Guzansky describes the current situation as a "perfect storm" for MBS, with failing alliances and a strategic defeat in Yemen.

Amidst Saudi Arabia's strategic difficulties, Israel sees an opportunity to quietly assist Riyadh in preventing Houthi entrenchment, a move that could foster goodwill and serve a shared interest in regional stability.