Trump Administration May Be Pressuring Saudi Arabia Over Israel Deal

A Syrian-Kurdish researcher, Ali Tami, suggests that the Trump administration may be using regional threats as a tool to pressure Saudi Arabia into normalizing relations with Israel. Tami's analysis, reported by Maariv, posits that the U.S. aims to limit Saudi Arabia's autonomy and push it towards an agreement with Israel on terms currently unfavorable to Riyadh. This interpretation is presented as the researcher's assessment, not a confirmed White House strategy, and lacks evidence of direct U.S. coordination with the Houthi rebels.

According to Tami, Saudi Arabia's refusal to join the Abraham Accords and establish peace with Israel, despite U.S. interest in regional normalization, has fueled U.S. dissatisfaction. The kingdom has also reportedly not supported U.S.-backed energy and trade routes through Jordan and Haifa, instead developing its own regional ties with countries like Turkey, Pakistan, and Syria. Tami views this growing Saudi independence as a key reason for the shift in U.S. policy, arguing that Washington is wary of a powerful independent Middle Eastern player.

The Houthi threat to critical shipping lanes and oil infrastructure in the Red Sea and Bab el-Mandeb strait is seen by Tami as a significant factor. He notes that the U.S. appears to be taking insufficient action to counter Houthi advances in Yemen, suggesting that the pressure created by the Houthis can be indirectly leveraged by the U.S. to weaken Riyadh's negotiating position. This forces Saudi Arabia to simultaneously manage security concerns for its oil facilities, trade routes, and borders, thereby limiting its foreign policy independence and increasing the costs of regional confrontation.

Tami interprets the ongoing situation as a form of "revenge" by the Trump administration for Saudi Arabia's rejection of the U.S.-proposed regional framework. He believes that if Saudi Arabia faces escalating threats and economic losses, the U.S. may offer security guarantees and closer cooperation, but at the political price of normalizing relations with Israel. Saudi Arabia is reportedly seeking to avoid complete dependence on Washington for its security.

As a counter-strategy, Tami advises Saudi Arabia to further develop its own regional influence by strengthening its position in Syria, supporting Sunni forces in Lebanon and Iraq, and expanding its presence in Sudan, Somalia, Libya, and Yemen. He warns that failure to do so could result in the kingdom being surrounded by pressure points and eventually forced to accept previously rejected political conditions.