Trump Seeks Nuclear Deal Leverage for Saudi-Israel Normalization
Saudi Arabia is re-emerging as a central player in regional diplomacy, driven by a civilian nuclear cooperation agreement with the United States that has been submitted to Congress, sparking debate over its political and security implications. This development has revived discussions about normalization with Israel, as former President Donald Trump aims to link nuclear cooperation, a strengthened alliance with Riyadh, and progress in Israeli-Saudi relations.
Trump's strategy involves packaging civilian nuclear cooperation, a strategic alliance with Saudi Arabia, and normalization with Israel into a single deal. Saudi Arabia, the Arab world's largest economy and custodian of Islam's holiest sites, is seen as a crucial prize for the Abraham Accords. However, the post-October 7th landscape has shifted Saudi priorities, with Riyadh now emphasizing the Palestinian issue and demanding a credible path to Palestinian statehood as a prerequisite for normalization.
The war in Gaza and resulting Arab public opinion pressure are significant factors, but the broader regional instability highlighted by the conflict has also influenced Saudi calculations. While Saudi Arabia remains reliant on the U.S. for security and advanced weaponry, it is diversifying its partnerships, expanding ties with Turkey and Pakistan as part of a risk-hedging strategy. This diversification does not signify a break from the U.S. but rather an effort to broaden its strategic options in an unpredictable region.
Saudi Arabia's renewed focus on the Palestinian issue stems from its ambition to lead the Arab and Muslim world, making it difficult to ignore the issue without risking its legitimacy. Normalization with Israel without tangible Palestinian gains could undermine its regional standing. The article suggests that while the path to Riyadh has become more complex, the underlying interests for normalization, including countering Iran and fostering regional stability, remain.
For Israel, the situation requires navigating a delicate balance: supporting Saudi Arabia's integration into the U.S. framework while avoiding the creation of a nuclear precedent that could destabilize the region. The article cautions against assuming normalization is imminent or that the Palestinian issue has closed the door entirely, emphasizing that Saudi Arabia enters negotiations with increased demands and a reduced willingness to rely solely on one ally.
