Israeli Polls Show Political Stalemate Ahead of Elections

Recent polls in Israel indicate a political deadlock following the closure of electoral lists, with major blocs showing nearly equal support. Five surveys released less than 24 hours after the deadline for submitting party lists reveal a deeply divided political landscape.

Four out of five polls show the "Yashar!" party, led by Gadi Eisenkot, in the lead. However, a poll by i24NEWS showed the Likud party, headed by Benjamin Netanyahu, with a significant advantage. Ofer Winter's "Amcha Yisrael" party consistently crosses the electoral threshold in all surveys, while Yoaz Hendel and Yaron Zelekha's joint list only passes the threshold according to Kan Corporation data.

The i24NEWS and Direct Polls survey presents a distinct outcome: Likud leads with 27 seats, followed by Yashar! with 22. Naftali Bennett's "Yahad" party garners 10 seats, "Democrats" 9, and "Yahadut HaTorah" and "Otzma Yehudit" each receive 8. The Joint List, Yisrael Beiteinu, and Shas each take 7 seats, Religious Zionism and Zehut 6, Ra'am 5, and Amcha Yisrael 4. Hendel and Zelekha's "Reservists and Economists" and "Mahane Mamlachti" fail to pass the threshold. In this scenario, Netanyahu's bloc with Winter secures 60 mandates, the Zionist opposition 48, and Arab parties 12.

Other polls show different results. A Hadashot 13 survey places Eisenkot's party at 22 seats and Likud at 19. Bennett's party gains 13 seats, Shas 7, and Winter's party 4. Hendel and Zelekha's list and Benny Gantz's "Kachol Lavan" with an ultra-Orthodox party do not pass. This scenario results in an absolute tie between Netanyahu's supporters and the Zionist opposition, each with 53 mandates, and 14 for Arab lists.

Kan's first poll shows Yashar! strengthening to 24 seats and Likud rising to 21. Yahad gets 12 seats, Democrats 9, and Yahadut HaTorah 8. Otzma Yehudit, Yisrael Beiteinu, and Shas each receive 7 seats, Religious Zionism and Zehut 5, and Amcha Yisrael 4. The Joint List takes 7 seats and Ra'am 5. Eisenkot's and Netanyahu's blocs each get 52 seats, Arab parties 12, and Hendel-Zelekha's list 4.

Hadashot 12 gives the lead to Eisenkot's party with 25 seats, leaving Likud with 21. Bennett gets 13, Democrats 10, Yisrael Beiteinu 9, Yahadut HaTorah 8, the Joint List and Shas 7 each, Religious Zionism with Zehut 5, and Amcha Yisrael strengthens to 5. Ra'am receives 4 seats. The coalition with Winter gains 52 mandates against 57 for the opposition.

Lazar Research Institute's poll for Maariv also shows Eisenkot with 25 seats and Likud falling to 19. Bennett gets 14, Democrats 10, Yisrael Beiteinu 9, Otzma Yehudit 8, while Yahadut HaTorah, the Joint List, and Shas each receive 7. Religious Zionism and Ra'am get 5 seats each, and Amcha Yisrael 4. Netanyahu's bloc with Winter secures 50 mandates, the opposition 58, and Arab parties 12.

On average across all five polls, Yashar! leads with 23.6 seats, Likud garners 21.4, and Netanyahu's bloc's average (53.4) is nearly equal to the opposition's (53.6).