Israeli Election Polls Show Near-Even Split Between Blocs

A wave of recent polls released across Israeli media outlets indicates a deeply divided political landscape, with no clear majority emerging for either the current government bloc or the opposition.

Five different surveys, conducted shortly after the final list of candidates was submitted for the upcoming elections, reveal a near-perfect tie between the two main political blocs. The average of these polls shows Benjamin Netanyahu's bloc with 53.4 mandates and the opposition bloc with 53.6 mandates, with Arab parties holding an additional 12.2 mandates. This suggests a highly competitive election with a very narrow margin.

Individual polls show varying results. One survey by i24NEWS places the Likud party, led by Netanyahu, in the lead with 27 mandates, and projects Netanyahu's bloc reaching 60 mandates when combined with Ofer Winter's party. However, other polls show a closer race. Channel 13's poll indicates a 53-53 tie between the blocs, while Kan News reports a 52-52 tie, with an additional 12 mandates for Arab parties and 4 for the new party formed by Yoaz Hendel and Yaron Ze'evikah.

Channel 12's poll shows Gadi Eisenkot leading with 25 mandates, and Ofer Winter's party strengthening to 5 mandates. In this poll, Hendel and Ze'evikah's party falls below the electoral threshold. Maariv's poll shows Eisenkot leading with 25 mandates and Netanyahu's bloc at a low of 50 mandates, with the opposition bloc at 58.

Notably, Ofer Winter's party appears in most polls, while the new party formed by Yoaz Hendel and Yaron Ze'evikah crosses the electoral threshold in some surveys but not others. Parties like Blue and White, Haredi Public, and Noam are projected to remain outside the Knesset in several of the polls.