Israeli Election Polls Show Near-Even Split Between Blocs

A wave of polls released just before the deadline for submitting party lists indicates a deeply divided Israeli political landscape, with the two main blocs nearly tied. The polls, aggregated by Walla and various news channels, suggest a highly competitive election season with no clear victor emerging.

Several surveys show a stark division in the Knesset, with the bloc supporting Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and the opposition bloc led by Gadi Eisenkot almost evenly matched. One poll from i24NEWS indicated a significant strengthening of Netanyahu's bloc, projecting the Likud party to win 27 seats. However, other polls, such as one from Channel 13, reported a perfect 53-53 tie between the two main blocs, with Arab parties holding the remaining 14 seats.

New political entities are also making an impact. Ofer Winter's "Am Israel" party is appearing in multiple polls, with varying results. The "Reservists-Economic" list, featuring Yoaz Hendel and Yaron Ze'ev Zelekha, is also a factor, crossing the electoral threshold in some polls but falling short in others. Notably, Blue and White, the ultra-Orthodox public party, and Noam are projected to fall below the electoral threshold in several surveys.

When averaging five different polls, Gadi Eisenkot's party leads with an average of 23.6 seats, narrowly ahead of Benjamin Netanyahu's Likud with 21.8 seats. Naftali Bennett's party follows with 12.4 seats. The aggregated bloc numbers show Netanyahu's bloc with 53.6 mandates and the opposition bloc with 53.4, with Arab parties securing an average of 12.2 seats. The margin between the two main blocs is a mere two-tenths of a mandate.