Israel on High Alert for Iranian Retaliation After Lebanon Tunnel Bombing

The Israeli military has raised its alert status in anticipation of a potential Iranian response following its extensive bombing of a Hezbollah stronghold in southern Lebanon. On Friday, Israeli media reported that the security establishment is considering the possibility of Iranian retaliation for the destruction of tunnels and infrastructure at Ali al-Taher hill, which reportedly involved over 1,100 tons of explosives. Israeli media described the targeted area as Hezbollah's "largest and deepest infrastructure in this region."

According to Yedioth Ahronoth, the Israeli military discovered a significant cache of weapons at the site, including dozens of explosive drones, regular drones, machine guns, anti-tank missiles, and hundreds of mines. Israel has warned that any Iranian attack in response to the bombing would not be confined to Lebanon. Defense Minister Israel Katz stated that an Iranian assault would "free us from all constraints" and lead to strikes on Iranian energy facilities, pushing the country "back to the Stone Age and darkness."

Despite these warnings, current assessments within the Israeli security apparatus suggest that the likelihood of a broad escalation with Iran is not high. However, preparations are underway for a possible limited Iranian reaction or for sustained clashes with Hezbollah. A senior Israeli officer told the newspaper that there is "no reason for Iran to intervene in Lebanon," and if it does, it will face a "very quick and ready response."

Israeli military intelligence and the air force are not currently detecting any Iranian decision to launch a direct attack on Israel. However, Israeli security officials believe Iran might retaliate by targeting U.S. bases in Jordan or areas near Israel's borders.

Israeli public broadcaster Kan reported that senior Israeli officers claimed the operation at Ali al-Taher hill, which lasted three months and began with a ruse after the capture of the Shqif Castle, was kept secret for two weeks to avoid provoking Iran and Hezbollah. The operation involved ambushing Hezbollah fighters inside the tunnels, resulting in their deaths. Israel reportedly informed the United States of the operation, who in turn notified the Lebanese government. Approximately 50 Hezbollah operatives were present in the tunnels and refused to surrender despite demands conveyed through Lebanese intermediaries.

Following the bombing, Israel heightened its air defense readiness. However, no Iranian preparations are currently being observed. Military analyst Amos Harel noted in Haaretz that Israel's prolonged conflict, contrary to its founding security principles, has created a difficult long-term security reality. He highlighted the immense cost of maintaining three security belts in Lebanon, Syria, and Gaza, in addition to the West Bank, requiring reservists to serve 100 days annually and continuous military operations. Harel suggested that the General Staff believes a political step is needed to reduce the number of fronts Israel is engaged in, but this is unlikely under Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu until at least the October elections, especially with the U.S. President's focus shifting elsewhere.