Iran's Nuclear Program Lacks Oversight After Strikes, Experts Warn
Iran's nuclear program is operating with significantly reduced international oversight, making it difficult for the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) and global experts to accurately assess its current status, according to a CNN report. Years of restrictions on inspectors, coupled with recent military strikes on key facilities, have eroded the agency's ability to maintain continuous knowledge of Iran's nuclear materials, equipment, and centrifuges.
Following the US withdrawal from the 2015 nuclear deal in 2018, Iran began incrementally abandoning its commitments. This included increasing uranium enrichment levels, reducing cooperation with the IAEA, and limiting access for international inspectors. A significant incident occurred in 2023 when inspectors discovered uranium enriched to 83.7% at the Fordow facility, a level close to weapons-grade, a finding initially noted by a Russian inspector who was later expelled along with other IAEA experts. IAEA Director General Rafael Grossi described this as a severe blow to the agency's monitoring capabilities.
In June 2025, the IAEA officially stated Iran had violated its nuclear safeguards. Subsequently, Israel and the US conducted strikes on Iranian nuclear sites, including Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan. However, the physical damage to these facilities does not clarify the status of all nuclear infrastructure. A primary concern is the uncertainty surrounding Iran's nuclear materials and equipment following the attacks, as inspectors have had limited access since February 2026, with the exception of the Bushehr power plant. This lack of access prevents a clear determination of what was destroyed, damaged, or potentially relocated.
The IAEA's crucial "continuity of knowledge" has been compromised, leaving the agency unable to confidently track the exact quantity and condition of enriched uranium and centrifuges. Experts like Eric Brewer suggest the IAEA must essentially rebuild its understanding of the program from scratch due to a significant data deficit. Physicist James Acton believes Iran could develop a nuclear weapon if it politically decides to do so, estimating a 50/50 chance within three years, though this does not imply an existing warhead. The core issue remains the inability to reliably assess Iran's capabilities and the speed at which it could resume necessary processes.
The situation has led to Iran's nuclear dossier being referred to the UN Security Council, mirroring a 2006 referral that resulted in sanctions. However, current geopolitical dynamics, including US military action and economic pressure, alongside Russia and China's veto power, present significant political obstacles to new stringent measures. Iran maintains its actions are political and denies seeking nuclear weapons, asserting the IAEA has not proven diversion of nuclear materials for prohibited purposes. Ultimately, the more the international community tries to ascertain the state of Iran's nuclear program, the less reliable information it possesses, with the key question shifting from whether facilities were destroyed to what remains and where it is located.
