Small Parties Could Decide Election Outcome, Analysis Shows

As candidate lists close and initial polls are released, Israel's political landscape appears mostly set but with significant underlying volatility. The current data suggests not a balanced contest between two equal blocs, but rather two separate elections being run by each side. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu faces a complex challenge, needing just one or two more seats to reach the 61-seat majority, while also contending with the right-wing parties led by Smotrich and Winter. Polls indicate the right-wing bloc could secure 60 seats if Winter's party, 'Oz Yehudit', crosses the electoral threshold; without it, the bloc drops to 58 seats, presenting a major dilemma for Netanyahu and the bloc's leaders.

Adding to the right-wing bloc's potential losses, an estimated 1.5% to 2% of the ultra-Orthodox vote is currently split among several small lists that may not pass the electoral threshold, potentially costing Netanyahu's bloc around two seats. This fragmentation within a historically loyal voting base could have significant consequences for the bloc's ability to form a government.

Meanwhile, the "change bloc" faces a more difficult situation, currently polling around 48 seats. Even in optimistic scenarios, this bloc does not appear close to securing a majority on its own. Within this bloc, Benny Gantz is showing a steady recovery, returning to double-digit seat projections for the first time in two and a half months. However, the refusal of other leaders, like Liberman and Gantz himself, to endorse Gadi Eisenkot as the bloc's prime ministerial candidate undermines his leadership. Eisenkot's primary challenge is now to protect his existing 22 seats rather than gain new voters.

Further complicating matters for the change bloc, Benny Gantz's party is polling just over 1% and drawing votes from within the bloc. While Gantz is relevant enough to siphon votes, he is currently too small to pass the electoral threshold. If Gantz's party hovers around 2% to 2.5%, it could lead to a significant loss of votes, primarily impacting Eisenkot and Gantz. The opposition bloc's concern is not Gantz entering the Knesset, but rather him coming very close and potentially wasting votes.

The closing of candidate lists shifts the focus from campaign promises to the harsh mathematical realities of the electoral threshold. The key question now is not who garners more headlines, but who can best navigate the threshold. Netanyahu must decide whether to support Winter or potentially work to undermine him, with uncertain outcomes. He and the ultra-Orthodox parties must also address the fragmented vote within their sector. On the other side, Eisenkot and Gantz must try to absorb smaller parties like those led by Hendel and Zalicha before their potential failure to cross the threshold wastes crucial votes.