Political Survival Game Intensifies as Parties Struggle to Pass Israel's Electoral Threshold

As Israel approaches the 2026 elections, several smaller parties are engaged in a tense struggle to surpass the electoral threshold, with some adopting high-risk strategies to remain relevant. Former ministers Gilad Erdan and Yuli Edelstein have launched a joint party despite disappointing poll numbers, aiming to outlast competitors and hope others drop out, thereby securing enough votes to enter the Knesset. Meanwhile, the recent poll by Channel 12 shows that although parties like Hillel Hendel and Hili Tropper recently crossed the threshold, Erdan's entry has pushed them down again.

The poll also reveals a shift in voter preferences, with Naftali Bennett and Benny Gantz showing signs of recovery after previous setbacks. Bennett, in particular, has gained ground in public perception as a suitable prime minister, surpassing Benjamin Netanyahu for the first time in recent surveys. Additionally, former IDF Chief of Staff Gadi Eizenkot leads Netanyahu by two mandates, indicating a fragmented right-wing landscape.

The so-called "third bloc," consisting of centrist and right-leaning parties including Erdan, Edelstein, Hendel, and Tropper, faces internal challenges. Despite ideological proximity, poor relations hinder their ability to unite, though a combined list could yield six mandates. Analysts suggest Erdan and Edelstein's joint run is a form of political kamikaze, burning bridges with no fallback options.

Opposition parties are generally strengthening, with all polling in double digits, contrasting with the current coalition where only Likud surpasses that mark. Political commentators note the difficulty in uniting factions with divergent agendas, especially given the recent national trauma since October 7. Meanwhile, Benny Gantz's declining poll numbers raise questions about his campaign's effectiveness.

The political landscape remains volatile as parties jockey for position, with the electoral threshold looming as a critical barrier. The coming weeks will likely see intensified negotiations and strategic realignments as the election date approaches.